Prolonged U.S.-Iran war could pressure Seoul

As the United States moves to redeploy missile assets from United States Forces Korea, including Patriot, THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) and ATACMS systems, to the Middle East, analysts say a prolonged or sharply escalating U.S.-Iran war could lead Washington to seek direct or indirect support from Seoul. Such a situation could force Seoul to choose between contributing to alliance commitments and becoming involved in an overseas conflict, placing South Korean President Lee Jae-myung’s pragmatic diplomacy under pressure.

With signs the U.S.-Iran war could drag on, concern is growing within the South Korean government, including the presidential office, that Washington might request additional assistance beyond the redeployment of U.S. Forces Korea assets. Officials view the possibility of South Korea providing logistical support or dispatching troops as fundamentally different from the United States relocating its own military resources stationed on the peninsula to the Middle East. A government official said that, so far, the United States has not requested any support.

Still, observers say Washington could present what amounts to a request for assistance depending on how the conflict unfolds. Iran, which has declared plans to block the Strait of Hormuz, is reportedly installing naval mines to disrupt the passage of oil tankers and other vessels through the waterway. Japan is quietly reviewing whether to deploy its Maritime Self-Defense Force in anticipation of a possible U.S. request. European allies of the United States are also preparing to support a U.S. naval mission to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. President Donald Trump has not ruled out the possibility of deploying ground troops.

The South Korean government has maintained a cautious stance on the possibility that Washington could request military support. A government official said remarks by President Lee during a Cabinet meeting Tuesday may help prevent such a scenario. During the meeting, Lee said South Korea had voiced opposition to the removal of certain air defense weapons by United States Forces Korea, citing its own operational needs. According to the official, the comments could also help discourage any future request for South Korea to deploy its own military capabilities.


Kyu-Jin Shin newjin@donga.com