1 Million Ground Army Arranged in Kashmir

Would India carry out an all-out war against Pakistan really?

And how will deployment of war take place?

Military experts think that India will probably conduct `local war` like bombing terrorist base of Islamic militia rather than `full scale war`.

However, it is consensus of experts that if war starts, it can`t be estimated how it will develop as nuclear war.

The reason why high-ranking officials of the U.S and U.K will visit two nations soon and involve in pacifying the situation from the beginning is due to such potential explosive power.

▽ `limited attack` power = The U.K Financial Times selected two reasons why it is likely to be a limited war than an all-out war.

At first, Kashmir is not good terrain for carrying out ground attack, mobilizing tank, etc as it is mountainous region.

In case of ground attack, it can receive surprise attack from Islamic militants.

Military experts prospected that attacking terrorist base by mobilizing armed helicopters or fighters, or sudden attack mobilizing Special Forces would be more effective.

India has arranged `troops for sudden attack` since January in border area.

And the other reason is due to military power of India.

India has military force and weapons nearly two times than that of Pakistan; however, they are conventional weapons.

Especially, missiles of Pakistan which it boasts of has high precision and can make powerless India`s Air Force.

The U.S. and U.K. urge for controlling full scale war is narrowing choice of India.

▽ Possibility of accidental nuclear war = possibility of nuclear war is also not so high.

However, possibility of nuclear war can`t be ignored due to Pakistan, that has loose control on nuclear weapons, analyze experts.

`The Times` of U.K. reported on 23rd that U.K government pays attention to the worst scenario, too, in which Pakistan can use nuclear weapons after being pushed by conventional weapons, after all.

Military groups and Islam has great power in Pakistan, therefore its government is not able to control nuclear 100 percent.

And Pakistan has chosen comprehensive nuclear doctrine that states, in case territorial sovereignty, internal security and economic profit is harmed, Pakistan considers them as fatal threat and can use nuclear weapon. Therefore, it is difficult to predict when nuclear weapons will be used.

In fact, Pakistan had threatened India by nuclear four times since 1990.

As compared to this, India has stern stance not to carry out preemptive nuclear attacks by weapon.

In case of India, nuclear is aspect of political means targeting rivals of the area than military means.

Financial times compared on 23rd situation of India in which Prime Minister has the right for controlling nuclear, and Pakistan in which military controls, as difference between `Hindu bomb` and `Islamic bomb.

William Hopkins of U.K. RIIA said, “ if one side is pushed one-sidedly it can use nuclear weapon ” and “ but, we don`t know whether both nations will use tactical nuclear or they will bomb strategic nuclear on each others capital”.

Jong-Dae Ha orionha@donga.com