U.S. Sets Missile Test For July 14

The test of anti-ballistic missile will be held on 14th in order to establish the Missile Defense (MD) system for the first time since the Bush administration departed.

The Pentagon announced that ``an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Minuteman II carrying a dummy warhead and a Mylar decoy balloon will be launched from the Vandenberg Air Force Base in Southern California between 9:00 pm on 14th and 1:00 am on 15th. About 20 minutes later, an interceptor missile with a prototype "kill vehicle" will be fired from Kwajalein Atoll in the Marshall Islands, 4,800 miles away``.

The success of the test will be determined, depending on whether the `kill vehicle` (a computer-guided device with its own sensors) separated from its booster will destroy the mock warhead of the ICBM using the heat-seeking sensors at 220 km high in midair, about 10 minutes after the `kill vehicle` is fired.

The test method is similar to the third test of July last year. Thus far, only the first test was successful in October 1999, and the second and the third attempts failed.

The experts viewed that the outcome of the fourth test would have a special meaning because it is the first test since President Bush declared the allies to pursue the MD plan even if the ABM treaty with Russia will be abolished. Considering that in addition to Russia`s and China`s opposition, even the U.S.`s military experts have taken the pessimistic stance toward the MD system for the technological reason. The outcome of this test might be the crucial watershed for the continuous pursuit of the MD plan.

However, the dominant analysis is that the Pentagon will launch the test which has been delayed by several months from the original plan, because it confidently assured the success of the test.

The U.S. Air Force Maj. Gen. Ronald Cassidy, who is the head of the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization under the Pentagon, had once told last month that ``there was a great progress in the development of the core technology. And the technology to intercept the ballistic missile was already achieved to a satisfactory level``.

If the test finishes successfully, the Bush administration will accelerate the employment of the MD system. The Pentagon has reviewed the plan to employ the five interceptor missiles at Alaska by March 2004, as the first step of the MD plan.

And President Bush earmarked $8.3 billion for the missile defense study and test in the defense budget which was recently requested to the Congress.

This forecasts that the test of the interceptor missile needing over $100 million for one test will be boosted significantly.

The Associated Press (AP) analyzed that `` former President Clinton announced last Sept. 1 that anti-missile technologies were not sufficiently advanced in testing to commit to deploying a missile defense. The July 14 test will not have as much at stake, politically, as last July`s effort, which was the second consecutive failure``.

Lee Jong-Hoon taylor55@donga.com