Over half of experts in OECD members expect GDP decline

The economic prospects of the latter half of the year presented by economic institutes and organizations OECD member states have reportedly worsened year on year.

According to the Federation of Korean Industries on Monday, the survey by OECD Business and Industry Advisory Committee found that more than half of the member states responded that their GDP would decrease by 0.5 to 1 percentage points due to the war in Ukraine. The survey was conducted in June targeting economic institutes and organizations in the 31 OECD member countries. For Korea, the FKI was the respondent.

Mere 10 percent of the economic experts in the OECD member states expected that overall business environment for the latter half would be "good." It is a sharp decline from the 60 percent in the same survey last year. Those who responded the business environment would be average grew from 12 percent in 2021 to 59 percent in 2022. Those who have negative views ("bad" or "very bad") increased from 2 percent to 31 percent for the same period.

Major concerns for global macroeconomic situation include unstable energy prices and supplies (74 percent) and disrupted global supply chain (17 percent).

Corporate investment outlook has also deteriorated. Expectations for corporate investment increase in the latter half ("will sharply increase,” "will significantly increase") decreased by 23 percentage points from 95 percent to 72 percent this year. Meanwhile, 23 percent responded that the investment will drop ("will sharply drop,” "will significantly drop”), a 21 percentage point hike from 2 percent last year.


Do-Young Kwak now@donga.com