U.S. burden grows as Iran conflict continues

The war involving the United States and Israel against Iran entered its second month on Sunday, adding pressure in Washington as costs climb ahead of the November midterm elections.

A report from Harvard University’s Kennedy School warned that a prolonged conflict could cost the United States up to $1 trillion over the next decade. It said the mounting burden could also constrain Washington’s ability to respond to other security challenges, including a potential Chinese move against Taiwan.

Linda Bilmes, a public finance expert at the Kennedy School, said the pace of weapons use has been striking. In the first four days of the war, the number of Patriot missiles fired exceeded the total the United States provided to Ukraine over the past four years. Ammunition continues to be used at a rapid rate. Bilmes said rebuilding advanced weapons stockpiles and covering long-term costs such as veterans’ care would push total spending to at least $1 trillion.

The financial toll has already been significant. The American Enterprise Institute estimated that the United States spent up to $35 billion on military operations against Iran between the start of the war and April 8. The Quincy Institute estimated spending reached as much as $25 billion in the first month alone.

Public sentiment has also shown signs of strain, as rising oil prices tied to the prolonged conflict weigh on consumers. A Reuters and Ipsos poll released on April 21 showed U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval rating at 36 percent, the lowest since returning to office. There is also growing speculation that the ruling Republican Party, which holds majorities in both chambers of Congress, could lose ground to the Democratic Party in the midterm elections.

Efforts to arrange a second round of ceasefire talks between Washington and Tehran have stalled, with no date set. Analysts say the two sides remain divided over key issues, including the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program. According to Axios, Iran has proposed delaying discussions on curbing its nuclear capabilities and instead focusing first on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping route currently restricted by both sides. The U.S. response has not been made public.

Separately, a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, which Iran had set as a condition for talks with the United States, has effectively collapsed. Despite an agreement reached on April 18, clashes have continued between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group in Lebanon. On April 26, Israeli airstrikes involving fighter jets killed at least 14 people.

김윤진 kyj@donga.com