Tokyo proves policy can lift birth numbers

The number of newborns in Tokyo increased last year for the first time in nine years, a rare bright spot in Japan’s broader demographic decline. Japan’s health ministry said 88,518 babies were born in Tokyo in 2025, up 1.3 percent, or 1,142 births, from a year earlier. Among the country’s 47 prefectures, only Tokyo and Ishikawa recorded an increase. Ishikawa’s gain largely reflected a rebound after the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake, making Tokyo the only region to post a sustained rise.

The shift is notable, as birthrates in major cities typically trail those in rural areas. Analysts point to Tokyo’s sustained policy effort, combining expanded funding with targeted administrative support, as a key factor behind the increase.

Governor Yuriko Koike, Tokyo’s first female governor, has treated the low birthrate as a top priority since taking office in 2016. The metropolitan government has steadily expanded spending, allocating 2.2 trillion yen this year, about double the level at the start of her tenure and more than 20 percent of the overall budget. The scale is comparable to the annual budget of Osaka.

Tokyo’s approach extends beyond funding. It provides coordinated support from matchmaking through pregnancy, childbirth and child-rearing. Many parents say the measures have eased the financial burden of raising children.

Children in Tokyo receive free medical care. In addition to national health insurance, the metropolitan government covers the roughly 30 percent co-payment typically paid by patients. The benefit applies not only to routine illnesses but also to treatments such as fractures and dermatological care. Families pay neither consultation fees nor prescription costs.

Education expenses have also been reduced. Tuition and school meal costs are fully covered, and families receive a monthly allowance of 5,000 yen per child until age 18. The support is universal, with no income cap, and applies to foreign residents as well.

The broad range of benefits has drawn some families to relocate to Tokyo for child-rearing, despite high housing costs. Some districts offer additional subsidies, and informal rankings of family-friendly wards have gained attention.

More targeted initiatives have been introduced. In 2024, Tokyo launched an artificial intelligence-based matchmaking system that has attracted about 14,000 participants and led to 150 marriages. In-person events cost about 1,000 yen to join, with participants selected by lottery due to high demand. The government also offers up to 300,000 yen for egg freezing and up to 100,000 yen for pain-managed childbirth.

Tokyo’s total fertility rate stood at 0.96 in 2024, slightly lower than the previous year and below the national average of 1.15. Even so, it remains well above Seoul’s rate of 0.63 in 2025 and higher than South Korea’s overall rate of 0.80.

Recent data show a modest rise in births in South Korea, though some analysts attribute the increase to delayed marriages during the COVID-19 pandemic, raising doubts about whether the trend will last.

The more pressing question is whether families in South Korea feel that raising children has become easier. Tokyo’s experience, where policies are widely used and receive favorable feedback, may offer a useful point of reference.