Iran’s nuclear ambitions echo North Korea’s path

When Iran signed the nuclear deal (JCPOA) with the United States and five other Western powers in 2015, it agreed to limit its stockpile of low-enriched uranium to 300 kilograms at 3.67 percent, enough for civilian nuclear power plants. In May 2018, U.S. President Donald Trump, who took office in January 2017, unilaterally withdrew from the agreement, citing evidence that Iran was violating its terms.

After the U.S. exit, Iran accelerated its nuclear program. It now holds 450 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent. Although weapons-grade uranium requires 90 percent enrichment, some military analysts estimate that Iran could produce as many as ten nuclear weapons if it further refines its stockpile.

It remains unclear whether the U.S. withdrawal triggered Iran’s expansion or merely coincided with it. Without the current conflict, Iran might have achieved nuclear capability in the near term. President Trump has asserted that “if the nuclear deal had not been broken, Iran would have had nuclear weapons three years ago,” framing the claim to support his anti-Iran policies and military actions.

The outcome of the ongoing conflict remains uncertain. Still, Iran’s preoccupation with nuclear weapons, persistent economic struggles, dynastic succession, and diplomatic isolation increasingly mirror North Korea’s path, raising concern among analysts.

In 1994, the Clinton administration considered a targeted strike on North Korea’s Yongbyon nuclear reactor but ultimately refrained, fearing escalation. More than three decades later, North Korea possesses nuclear weapons, yet its citizens continue to endure hardship. During the mid-1990s “Arduous March,” hundreds of thousands perished from famine, and the country still faces chronic shortages of food and electricity.

Iran faces a comparable situation. Since suspicions of nuclear development surfaced in 2002, Western sanctions have pressured the country, yet its leadership has prioritized nuclear programs and regional influence through armed groups over domestic welfare. As a result, Iran, the world’s fourth-largest oil holder, still imports gasoline due to outdated refining facilities. Even if it acquired nuclear weapons, the country would remain economically behind the global development curve.

Iran also reflects North Korea in its approach to dynastic succession. Former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his son Mojtaba have consolidated power in a father-son transfer. The Islamic Republic, founded after the 1979 revolution with promises to overthrow the 2,500-year-old Persian monarchy, has now permitted a dynastic succession just 47 years into the theocratic republic, directly contradicting its original revolutionary ideals. Few openly challenge this inconsistency.

Diplomatic isolation further deepens Iran’s challenges. Sunni Gulf states, including the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain, had maintained a cautious stability with Shia-majority Iran. But after Iran launched airstrikes on key Sunni facilities, these countries have distanced themselves from Tehran and moved closer to Washington. Apart from China and Russia, Iran now faces a level of international isolation strikingly similar to that of North Korea.