Two-week cease-fire provides pause, not lasting peace

The United States and Iran reached an unexpected two-week cease-fire on April 8, just 88 minutes before a deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump. Under the agreement, the U.S. will halt attacks on Iran, while Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump demanded the reopening be “complete and immediate,” but Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described it as a “controlled passage” coordinated with the Iranian military. The announcement caused international oil prices to drop sharply and global stock markets to rise.

The cease-fire, reached 38 days into the conflict, offers a temporary pause for both countries and the international community, but uncertainty remains high. Analysts say the agreement likely reflects a shared interest in avoiding worst-case escalation: the U.S. faces a strategic stalemate, while Iran cannot maintain large-scale threats indefinitely. Enforcement of the two-week halt is not assured. While Iran has agreed to reopen the strait, how it will coordinate with its military remains unclear, given the separate command structures of the government, regular armed forces, and the Revolutionary Guard.

Experts caution that the short-term truce is unlikely to produce a formal end-of-war agreement. Core disputes, including Iran’s nuclear enrichment rights, control of the Strait of Hormuz, and war reparations, remain deeply unresolved. Both sides are presenting the cease-fire as a victory, raising the risk that the conflict could evolve into a prolonged war of attrition without a clear resolution. The unpredictability of war, combined with Trump’s erratic approach and uncertainties in Iran’s leadership, adds further danger.

For South Korea, the cease-fire leaves little room for delay. Immediate action is required to ensure the safety of 26 trapped vessels and roughly 170 crew members in the Strait of Hormuz. The temporary opening provides only a narrow window, and both government and private sector authorities must move quickly to secure safe passage.

Efforts to safeguard energy supplies must also accelerate. Even if the detained tankers reach South Korea, they will not fully meet demand. The country needs to continue developing alternative shipping routes for Middle Eastern oil, including through the Red Sea, and diversify supply lines from Australia, Southeast Asia, and the United States. Until uncertainty eases, strict crisis management measures must remain in place.