South Korea tops MSCI return rankings in Q2

South Korea ranked first among 64 countries in second-quarter returns on the MSCI index, as expectations for stock market stimulus under the Lee Jae-myung administration helped drive a sharp rally.

According to an analysis released Monday by Hana Securities, the MSCI Korea Index posted a 31.4 percent return in the second quarter (April to June), three times higher than the 11.0 percent average return of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. This was the highest return among all 64 countries tracked by MSCI.

During the first half of 2025 (January to June), the MSCI Korea Index followed a “low-then-high” trajectory. In the first quarter, political instability stemming from former President Yoon Suk-yeol’s impeachment proceedings and U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump’s tariff war kept the return rate at 6.3 percent. However, in the second quarter, political conditions stabilized, and expectations for pro-market policies under the new administration lifted the index sharply. As a result, South Korea ranked sixth globally in year-to-date returns with 39.6 percent.

The rally has fueled optimism that the KOSPI may break its all-time high of 3,316.08 in the second half of the year. Lee Cheol-hyun, a researcher at Hana Securities, said, “With universal consumer coupon payouts increasing market liquidity and real estate regulations directing funds into equities, the KOSPI could rise to the high 3,000 range.”

On the same day, the KOSPI closed at 3,114.95, up 1.81 percent from the previous session. Despite the U.S. government announcing that it will impose a 25 percent reciprocal tariff on Korean goods starting August 1, the index recovered the 3,100 level for the first time in three trading days. Analysts attributed the rebound to growing expectations that the tariff rate could be revised during upcoming negotiations. The won-dollar exchange rate ended the session at 1,367.9 won per dollar, up 0.1 won from the previous day.


한재희기자 hee@donga.com