Era of $40,000 per capita GDP delayed by two more years

On April 28, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) delayed its projection for South Korea to reach $40,000 in per capita GDP by two years, from 2027 to 2029. Grim forecasts also suggest that due to factors such as the U.S.-China trade conflict, South Korea’s per capita GDP could be surpassed by Taiwan as early as next year.

According to the IMF, South Korea's estimated per capita GDP for this year is $34,642, a 4.1 percent decrease from last year’s $36,129. As recently as last October, the IMF estimated South Korea’s per capita GDP for this year at $37,675, but this figure has dropped by eight percent in just six months, falling below even the 2022 level of $34,822.

"As a result, the timeline for South Korea to reach a $40,000 per capita GDP has been pushed back to 2029." The IMF expects South Korea's per capita GDP to grow modestly by three to four percent annually, reaching $40,341 by 2029. In its previous forecast last October, the IMF had predicted that South Korea’s per capita GDP would reach $41,031 by 2027 and $44,347 by 2029, but it has since downgraded its forecast by about nine percent.

There is a risk that Taiwan will surpass South Korea as soon as next year. The IMF projects Taiwan’s per capita GDP is projected to be $36,319 next year, higher than South Korea’s projected per capita GDP of $35,880 in 2026. If Taiwan overtakes South Korea, it would be the first time in 24 years since 2002.


홍석호 기자 will@donga.com