Korea, U.S. launch critical '2+2' tariff talks

Tariff negotiations between Korea and the U.S. will begin this week in a “2+2” format, involving both countries’ finance and trade ministers. Deputy Prime Minister and Economy and Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok, along with Trade, Industry, and Energy Minister Ahn Duk-geun, will visit the U.S. to hold high-level trade talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besent and USTR Representative Jamieson Greer on Thursday and Friday. As the fallout from the Trump-era tariff wars intensifies, the talks between the two nations are shifting from an exploratory phase to full-scale negotiations. It is crucial for Korea to maintain its own pace and avoid being rushed by the U.S.'s agenda.

In last week's U.S.-Japan tariff talks, U.S. President Donald Trump attended unexpectedly, demanding increased defense spending from Japan, a reduction in its trade surplus, and expanded sales of American automobiles. This “one-stop shopping” approach, which links tariffs and security, put pressure on Japan. Given Korea’s similar economic, industrial, and security structures, the U.S. may likely make similar demands on Seoul.

The Korean government intends to separate trade and security issues with a two-track strategy, though it remains uncertain whether the Trump administration will respect this approach. The most effective tactic at this point is to highlight the upcoming change in government during the tariff exemption period, buying time to delay security-related discussions. Korea should also emphasize that its defense budget, which stands at 2.8% of GDP, is significantly higher than that of other U.S. allies.

Trump's tariff war has encountered unexpected retaliation from China, financial market turmoil, and intensified anti-Trump protests at home. Faced with increasing pressure, Trump may resort to sudden, unconventional tactics in the negotiations with Korea. The expansion of talks to a “2+2” format at the U.S.'s request signals an attempt to broaden the scope of negotiations. Korea must prepare detailed strategies for every potential scenario, including a surprise appearance by Trump himself, and respond swiftly and strategically.

The shock from the tariff war has put Korea's economy at risk of contracting in the first quarter, placing it in a critical situation. These tariff talks will serve as a turning point for Korea’s export-driven industries, domestic demand, and international credibility. While actively engaging in negotiations with the U.S., Korea must carefully consider the shifting terms and internal resistance within the U.S. The key is to stay composed and avoid impatience or overreach in response to Trump’s unpredictable trade tactics, which are unlikely to end quickly.