Party approval ratings fluctuate after martial law

The People Power Party's (PPP) approval rating has fluctuated like a roller coaster since the Dec 3 martial law. Immediately after the declaration of martial law, support dropped to the low 20% range. Still, it rebounded amid the impeachment of Acting President Han Duck-soo and the political turmoil surrounding the arrest of President Yoon Suk-yeol. However, the trend has since been seesawing, with the Democratic Party regaining the lead, particularly among centrist voters.

This shifting approval trend comes as the Constitutional Court’s impeachment trial has reached its final stage, with only President Yoon’s closing statement remaining on Tuesday. Gallup analysts suggest that recent developments, including the disclosure of prosecution records contradicting the president’s arguments in the impeachment trial and the transfer of the Myung Tae-kyun case to the Seoul Central District Prosecutors’ Office, have added pressure on the ruling party.

At the early stage of the Constitutional Court's hearings, the PPP focused on highlighting minor memory lapses by key witnesses. They repeatedly echoed the martial law forces’ claims that the president had neither ordered the removal of lawmakers nor instructed the arrest of politicians. However, testimonies from military commanders have since surfaced, saying, “The president pressured us to arrest lawmakers every time he called, six times in total,” and “I even repeated back the order to remove lawmakers.” These statements have clarified the facts of the case.

Despite this, the PPP appears more inclined to defend the martial law forces than to distance itself from the illegal martial law. Interim leader Kwon Young-se openly attacked the Constitutional Court, the final judicial authority under the Constitution, calling its justices “puppets.” Senior party members, after visiting the detained president, publicly relayed his messages, effectively turning themselves into tools for his prison-based politics. Furthermore, the party has yet to shake off election fraud allegations completely. President Yoon’s legal representatives also revealed his message: "I will return to office as soon as possible and lead Korea with the power of generational unity.”

However, this alignment with far-right street movements has led to a loss of centrist support, as confirmed by the latest polls. The PPP now faces a critical choice: whether to continue defending the martial law forces or to pivot toward expanding its appeal to moderate voters.