The biggest enemy of German military is demographic decline

Last week, posters appeared in various parts of Paris, France, bearing a message rarely seen: "Macron, we will not die for Ukraine." This slogan emerged in response to French President Emmanuel Macron's hint at the possibility of deploying troops to Ukraine on February 26, sparking backlash from citizens. Some even organized rallies opposing the deployment of French troops. Despite President Macron's swift denial of any immediate plans for deployment, the anger among citizens is still simmering.

Recent events have heightened anxiety and a sense of crisis over war in Europe, particularly in neighboring Germany. Despite Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and its escalation of nuclear threats towards the West, Germany witnessed a rapid reduction in its military forces. During a visit to the largest German Army base in Munster, Lower Saxony, people expressed concerns about how they should handle war with reduced military capacity.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump, a candidate in the upcoming November elections, is fueling the fire. His threats to disband the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the backbone of European defense, and his insinuations of withholding support to Ukraine if re-elected, could have dire consequences. The potential for Russia's aggression to spread to other European countries, should Ukraine fall, is a real and immediate concern.

Feeling the heat, Germany hastily embarked on military expansion. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Germany declared a "Zeitenwende" (historic turning point) in defense capabilities, allocating 100 billion euros (approximately 144 trillion won) for special defense reinforcements and doubling its defense budget.

Despite these efforts, the German Defense Ministry announced a reduction of approximately 1,500 federal troops as of 2023. This setback in military buildup is not due to a lack of effort but rather stems from Germany's historical legacy as a former aggressor in two world wars, leading to a prolonged hesitance in military expansion. Additionally, the transition from conscription to a volunteer army in 2011 further reduced the demand for military forces during peaceful times, presenting a unique challenge for Germany.

Above all, the demographic decline from falling birth rates poses a formidable challenge. While the country is making significant military expansion efforts and considering reinstating conscription, these efforts do not cure the dwindling population. As of 2021, Germany's total fertility rate stood at 1.58 births per woman, and to tackle this, Germany is not only considering reinstating conscription but also allowing foreign nationals to enlist in its military.

In comparison, South Korea faces an even more precarious situation with a total fertility rate of only 0.81 births per woman, about half of Germany's. Predictions indicate a significant decrease in the size of new military recruits from 270,000 in 2022 to 160,000 by 2040 due to a declining population of men in their twenties. While it often goes unnoticed, many overlook that South Korea remains technically in a state of ceasefire.

Previously, even with a shortage of domestic troops, a country could rely on allied support during crises. However, such expectations are now viewed as naive. If former President Trump returns to power, he may play the card of withdrawing U.S. troops stationed in South Korea, as in his first term. He may also demand a substantial increase in defense cost-sharing under the name of self-defense.

With major Western powers' weapons and resources depleted due to the "two wars" in Ukraine and the Middle East, a perception is permeating that "we're too busy to take care of our own security." Therefore, South Korea, labeled as a "laggard in birth rates," must take seriously the warning from foreign media that "the biggest enemy of the South Korean military is low birth rates" and promptly devise countermeasures.