Kim Jong Un encourages finding ways to create waves in S. Korea

"Find ways to make waves in the South early next year." According to the National Intelligence Service (NIS), North Korean leader Kim Jong Un recently issued such an instruction to his aides. The NIS reportedly confirmed this through multiple intelligence sources, including human intelligence and signal intelligence focused on North Korea.

The NIS has not ruled out the possibility of a seventh nuclear test, anticipating North Korean provocations to persist before the 2024 general elections in April. In particular, the North Korean military has initiated the rearmament of the Joint Security Area (JSA), reinstating guard posts with AK-47s and other rifles at the Panmunjom JSA. The South Korean military authorities are closely monitoring the potential for additional provocations in the frontline areas.

The National Intelligence Service issued a one-and-a-half-page press release on the same day, saying, “North Korea is likely to launch a military provocation early next year, ahead of our major political events.” North Korea may perceive the period leading up to South Korea's upcoming general elections and the U.S. presidential election in November as a 'volatile state,' potentially leading to provocations against South Korea.

It is uncommon for the South Korean intelligence agency to disclose highly classified intelligence to the media. According to a government source, this disclosure serves as a warning message to inform the North Korean leadership that our authorities are aware of the internal dynamics of North Korea, aiming to dissuade them from engaging in serious provocations. The disclosure is also intended to heighten awareness of the North Korean threat. This comes as the NIS's anti-communism investigation function is set to transfer to the police on January 1 next year, raising concerns about potential gaps in the investigation.

South Korea and the United States believe military tensions have peaked in the Joint Security Area (JSA) and other forward areas. They are closely monitoring developments, including potential North Korean military actions. North Korean troops have been seen carrying AK-47s and other rifles in the JSA, restoring guard posts and escalating tensions. North Korea declared the termination of the September 19 Pyongyang Declaration on Nov. 23 under the Ministry of Defense's name. Since then, North Korean soldiers in the JSA have been armed with handguns. This was followed by a 'complete rearmament' process to revert the JSA, demilitarized under the 2018 agreement, to its pre-agreement status.


yea@donga.com