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Seoul's elementary, secondary school students expected to halve in 2035

Seoul's elementary, secondary school students expected to halve in 2035

Posted August. 31, 2023 08:09,   

Updated August. 31, 2023 08:09

Seoul\

The number of elementary and middle school students in Seoul in 2035 will be about half of what it is today, according to the first analysis of its kind by the Seoul Metropolitan Office of Education. A steep decline in Korea’s fertility rate and an increase in the number of people moving out of Seoul to other parts of the country will lead to a much steeper decline in the number of students in Seoul than previously projected. As enrollment plummets, schools will be forced to merge or close, and neighborhoods will become increasingly dilapidated. The decline varies widely among Seoul's 25 districts, making it urgent for education authorities to come up with long-term measures.

According to the Seoul Metropolitan Office of Education's 'Trends in school-age population by school level' data obtained by The Dong-A Ilbo on Wednesday, the number of elementary and middle school students in Seoul, which stands at 786,880 this year, is estimated to fall to 669,000 in 2027, 561,000 in 2030, and then to 421,000 in 2035. This was calculated by the Seoul Metropolitan Office of Education based on existing population estimates from Statistics Korea and the city before being adjusted by considering projected enrollment and graduation rates, as well as inbound and outbound migration of students. Just eight months ago, in December last year, the city estimated that the number of elementary, middle, and high school students in 2035 would be 448,864. The latest forecast is lower by 6.2 percent, or 27,864 students.

It is the first time that the metropolitan education office has released a separate estimate of the school-age population outside of its annual ‘student placement plan.’ “This reflects the recent steep decline in the fertility rate as well," said an official at the Seoul Metropolitan Office of Education. "However, it is difficult to accurately estimate the number of students at middle and high schools because many people tend to move in and out of the city in preparation for high school and college entrance exams."

According to the forecast, the proportion of Seoul's school-age population from elementary to high schools will fall from 8.3 percent this year to 4.7 percent in 2035. The total population of Seoul in 2035 will be about 8.95 million, down 5.1 percent from this year, while the number of students will drop by 46.5 percent. The proportion of the population aged 65 and higher is expected to increase from 18.0 percent to 28.4 percent.

This will lead to an increase in branch schools and school closures. Experts say that the city needs to find ways to utilize existing educational facilities, such as empty schools due to school mergers, as lifelong education facilities to meet the demographic changes, such as a rising elderly population.

The Seoul Metropolitan Office of Education is considering a ‘two-track strategy’ to relocate schools by dividing them into elementary and secondary schools. The office plans to create ‘Seoul-style branch schools’ to operate as small schools for elementary schools whose students’ commuting distances cannot be increased significantly while merging and relocating middle and high schools, which require an adequate number of students, to meet the demand for education.


Sung-Min Park min@donga.com