Danger of Park`s dominance within ruling party

A new opinion poll has found that Moon Jae-in, chairman of the Roh Moo-hyun Foundation, is slightly ahead of Park Geun-hye, acting chief of the ruling Saenuri Party, in approval ratings. The gap between the two is within the margin of error, but this is the first time for Moon to overtake Park. In several opinion polls, Moon even beat out former IT guru Ahn Cheol-soo. With Ahn`s popularity subsiding a bit, momentum for Moon seems to be gaining instead.

The opposition camp is seeking to win broad public approval by banking on a group of presidential candidates that include Ahn and Moon. In contrast, Park seems to be consolidating her dominance within the ruling party. Her potential competitors are largely keeping a low profile. If “Park Geun-hye fatigue” is prolonged, it will eat into the political dynamism of the right-wing, conservative camp as a whole. Moon’s strides in approval ratings constitute a warning to the ruling party, which is losing its vitality.

The keywords in the opposition camp are unity and integration. The “innovation and integration” faction led by pro-Roh forces, including Moon, has spearheaded the inauguration of the main opposition Democratic United Party. The party is not actively pursuing negotiations with the United Progressive Party for selection of candidates for the April 11 general elections, but chances are high that they will unify candidates in both the general and presidential elections. In contrast, a deep divide exists between parties and factions in the greater ruling camp. The Future Hope Alliance, which merged with the Saenuri Party, is a satellite party of the pro-Park Geun-hye faction and can hardly generate a synergistic effect from integration. The ruling party has shown no hint of forming a alliance with other right-leaning, conservative forces who lack friendly ties with Park.

As the Saenuri Party is removing the remnants of the now-defunct Grand National Party, including the party name, Park’s dominance within the party only seems to be increasingly consolidating. A growing number of politicians are apparently more vigilant of Park’s intentions and keeping a low profile ahead of candidate nominations for the general elections. The party assembled a general meeting of lawmakers Tuesday through which certain legislators pledged to raise issue with the party`s new name for 2.5 hours, but this ended without involving a heated debate.

In the ruling party’s candidate nomination committee for the 2008 general elections, which the pro-Park Geun-hye faction labeled a “nomination massacre,” Rep. Kang Chang-hee was granted a seat to represent the faction. Critics called this a mere formality, but it still left room to nominate non-mainstream party members as candidates. In contrast, members of the pro-Lee Myung-bak faction, which has transformed into a non-mainstream force, are nowhere to be found on the party’s nomination committee for the 2012 general elections. Since voices from other factions have been outright ruled out from the very beginning, critics might say that candidate nominations in a fair and equitable fashion are impossible. If the ruling party consolidates a mood that potential candidates scramble to be wary of Park’s sentiment, it could face a bottleneck in internal communication. If the ruling party fails to overcome the fatigue of Park`s dominance and divide, Democratic United Party candidates could solidify their lead in the election race.