Mobile phone surveys

Napoleon Bonaparte said, “Public opinion is a mysterious and invisible power to which everything must yield. Power is founded on opinion.” English writer and critic William Hazlitt said, “Nothing is more unjust or capricious than public opinion.” Regardless of the views on public opinion, public opinion undeniably equals public sentiment in modern politics. This is also true in Korea, where public opinion plays a powerful role in electing the president and government officials as well as in devising policy. In this regard, opinion surveys should accurately gauge public opinion.

The validity of mass media opinion polls was challenged after the June 2 local elections last year given the huge gap in exit polls and the results. So why did mass media fail to correctly assess public opinion with their surveys? First, the publication of opinion polls before an election affects popular opinion, leading to the "bandwagon (rally around the winner)" or "underdog (sympathy vote for those trailing)" effects. Second, election results can vary according to weather conditions, voter turnout and volatile swing votes. Experts also blame the low validity of opinion polls to changes in the telecommunications environment.

The number of mobile phone subscribers in Korea topped 50 million people in September last year, meaning that one person owned multiple cellular phones. Most opinion surveys, however, are still conducted on landline phone subscribers registered in the white pages. Worse, opinion polls use the 2007 directory because publication of subscriber directories was suspended in 2008. Forty percent of the numbers are invalid based on the 2007 directory. More young double-income families or one-person households are using mobile phones only, and their opinions will be excluded if surveys are conducted only on those with landlines. Mobile phone polls are impossible because cellular phone subscriber directories are unavailable.

Rep. Hong Joon-pyo of the leading Grand National Party proposed a revision to telecommunication law that enables public opinion surveyors to obtain mobile phone numbers for conducting opinion polls. He also urged punishment if they misuse or abuse these numbers. His proposal is proper given the huge influence of public opinion polls in elections. Kim Young-hye, vice president of the survey firm Korea Research Center, said, “There is low possibility of privacy infringement doing public opinion surveys on mobile phone subscribers because survey companies use just the phone numbers and home addresses. The validity of public opinion polls will rise if mobile phone surveys are conducted.”

Editorial Writer Kwon Sun-taek (maypole@donga.com)