After Reunification, North’s Nuclear Issue Will Be Completely Resolved

Korea’s unification, which is likely to happen by 2020, will reorganize the strategic balance in the Northeast Asian region. Changes triggered by the instability of North Korea will make it harder to control the weapons of mass destruction and also threaten South Korea’s democracy and economic prosperity by putting too much burden on the South.

The possibility cannot be excluded that North Korea will continue increasing the level of nuclear armament. Therefore, the final solution can be worked out after reunification of the Korean peninsula much in the same way that Ukraine’s nuclear issues were resolved after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

The South Korean government views instability on the peninsula more dangerously than North Korea’s nuclear weapons. It sides with China rather than the U.S. and Japan in terms of evaluating the level of threats. This reflects the opinion of the country’s revolutionary generation and democratic maturation.

The negotiations for the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the U.S. are losing public support. The conflicts of interest in the agricultural and automobile sector are putting strong pressure on the government. As a result, it appears to lose its desire to strike the deal.

The KOR-U.S. FTA seems to be unlikely, and if it develops in that way, conditions will become worse than not starting the deal at all. If the FTA fails, it will influence the perception of the values on the Korea-U.S. alliance and foster protectionism in the U.S.