[Opinion] Elections and Variables

Just three days prior to the general election, the majority predicted victory for the governing Popular Party. However, the situation was overturned by the deadly terrorist attack in Madrid as evidences suggested Al Qaeda as the hands behind the blast, which was in direct contradiction to the government’s announcement that blamed ETA, an anti-government organization. Angry citizens cast their votes for the opposition party, blaming the government’s support for the war in Iraq for provoking terrorism. Inducing anger, grief, and fear, the unforeseen terrorist attack has had a great impact on voter’s minds.

On March 14, the day of the Spanish general elections, President Vladimir Putin cruised through the Russian presidential election. Although there were six names on the list, voters did not seem to recognize any other candidates but Putin. Those in opposition of the president claimed that the president went as far as giving orders to ambulance drivers to serve only those who voted. All in all, the result would have been the same even with some unexpected outturns, since President Putin dominated the most efficient means of campaigning; the press and the government authority. To the citizens nostalgic of the Great Russian Empire, particularly the females fascinated by the strong male character reminiscent of the Czars, there was just no other option but Putin.

The Taiwanese presidential election, scheduled for March 20, is a no holds-barred battleground in which no one dares to predict the outcome. While Chen Shui-bian, who is pursuing Taiwan’s independence, says that “there will be no war against China” even if he wins the election, Lien Chan of the Nationalist Party claims that a historical number of Taiwanese people are setting upon a movement to replace the political power. The variable here is patriotism and China. China is very keen on any changes in Taiwan, which is making the move to break from the status quo. The Chinese stance in the situation and how the Taiwanese will interpret China’s position will make the difference in the polls.

These varying factors are the ones that leave even the “masters,” those who can predict the outcome with a handshake with the voters, helpless. The explosion of KAL airplane just before the 1987 presidential election, the “swellfish” scandal of the 1992, and the Jung Mong-jun’s retraction of support for candidate Roh Moo-hyun of the 2002 presidential election, are just some of the unexpected turn of events that gave huge impact to the outcome. No one will know for sure until the ballots are all accounted for. The aftershock of the impeachment will have great leverage on this year’s general election, and there is still a month left until the election.

Editorial Writer Kim, Sun-duhk yuri@donga.com