Bush in Triumph

U.S. President George W. Bush’s foreign policy continues its long drive, taking advantage of victory as Libya declared giving up its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) following the former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s capture and Iran’s acceptance of nuclear inspection. Compared to the recent worsening public opinion caused by an increase of U.S. army casualties in Iraq, it looks like a completely different age.

Such a “submissive” image of Iraq, Iran, and Libya that President Bush firsthand named as the “axis of evil” or “rogue regime” one after another seems to give an impression to its people that the U.S. power-oriented foreign policy has achieved success.

Moreover, with a clear sign of economic recovery, Mr. Bush seems to have a better possibility to win next year’s presidential election.

As recent polls also show the same result, Mr. Bush’s camp is quite encouraged while it is still cautious of optimism.

In the poll on December 18-19 by Newsweek magazine on 1,010 adult men and women, 52 percent responded that they were more likely to vote for Mr. Bush after Saddam Hussein was captured. Those who said the opposite constituted only 12 percent.

A joint poll on December 16-17 by USA Today, CNN and Gallop also showed a nine percent increase in President Bush’s performance approval rating from 54 percent to 63 percent after the capture of Saddam.

In the poll, Mr. Bush appeared to have beaten virtual matches with major Democratic candidates, especially a landslide victory over the former Vermont governor, Howard Dean, with the numbers as 60 percent vs. 37 percent.

However, it seems a bit early to assure his victory. In the poll by Newsweek, those responding “yes” and those responding “no” had the same results of 46 percent on the question as to whether or not they would like to see Mr. Bush get reelected.

Moreover, poll experts point out that an approval rating can fall rapidly as much as it rises. In fact, President Bush’s approval rating has shown ups and downs affected by major events. It rose from 51 percent to 86 percent after the 9/11 in 2001, and rose again from 58 percent to 71 percent after the war on Iraq.

Democratic candidates pointed out that “a key point is whether or not Americans feel that they are out of the chaotic Iraqi situation where they have to spend large amounts of money in the long term,” adding, “Hussein cannot be captured a second time.”

maypole@donga.com