China Mired in Power Struggle

▽Talks without conclusion

The Chinese leadership held a meeting in a summer resort early this month. If it went smoothly, the leadership would have laid out details about the transfer of power at the meeting. But South China Morning Post reported that President Jiang Zemin did not clarify whether he would transfer his power, not to mention which positions to transfer.

His attitude has been regarded as an attempt not to decide whether to take his hands off all he has secured or to transfer part of his positions to his successors.

So far the leadership has formed a consensus that Jiang would hand over presidency to Vice President Hu Jintao. Jiang`s aides have maintained that Jiang should hold such posts as the Secretary-General of the Communist Party and the chairman of the Central Military Committee since Hu lacks carrier experiences.

▽Three Scenarios

There are three possible scenarios for the transfer of power in the run up to the 16th National Convention slated for November.

First is to follow the wish of the late Deng Xiaoping. Deng, while alive, appointed Jiang as the 3rd generation leader and Hu as the 4th generation leader. In particular, Deng told Jiang not to remain in power for more than 10 years. As the late Chinese leader articulated, Jiang steps down as not only President and Secretary-General of the Communist Party but also the chairman of the Central Military Committee at the upcoming National Convention.

In this case, Li Fung, Zhu Rongji, Chinese Premier and Li Luihwan will step down together, heralding the emergence of the next generation leadership.

But the majority of people observe that Jiang will not give up his post as the chairman of the Central Military Committee. If Jiang holds onto his position as the Military Committee chairman, Li Fung, Jiang`s archrival, would not resign. Thus the likelihood that this scenario would become realized is very slim.

Second is that both Jiang and Li Fung remain in power. These two people might join forces together to postpone the time to step down as they did when they drove Chaos out. In this case, Jiang remains as the Secretary-General of the Communist Party and the chairman of the Military Committee, and Le Fung is sworn as the President. Non-mainstreamers Zhu Rongji and Li Luihwan step down.

ljhzip@donga.com