[Opinion] “ I Didn`t Study”

Support for the Presidential candidate of MDP, Roh Moo-hyun, who was elected causing `Roh wind` is falling.

According to survey that MBC executed, requesting Korea gallop, the support rate gap between candidate Roh Moo-hyun and candidate Lee Hoi-chang narrowed to within 10 percent.

Candidate Roh attended an invitation forum by the Kwanhun club on the 14th and stated his stance on current matters of national and main issues.

However, candidate Roh seems to have not utilized the opportunity to recover from the dropping support rate.

Candidate Roh, as he has done so far, avoided questions at the Kwanhun club forum that can be criticized as “changing word,” as he is characterized by replying equivocatingly.

For instance, he answered, “I haven`t studied with deep interest,” on the question regarding measures for unification, which is a sensitive issue.

Moderate trend voters might have thought that candidate Roh didn`t define clear stances about particular issues or candidates. Roh doesn`t want to reveal his view, despite having progressive opinions differently from theirs.

And, progressive trend voters who have supported candidate Roh might have felt skeptical, disappointed by Roh not defining his stance clearly.

Of course, people who observed the forum of candidate Roh looking with a jaundiced eye, among conservative trend voters, might not have any mental change.

Candidate Roh will have many opportunities to state his stance from now on, too.

However, he can’t state his political route every time.

In case he states a moderate stance or an indifferent policy from candidate Lee Hoi- Chang by changing his progressive stance, which he has continued so far, he may be ignored by voters who are supporting him currently.

Therefore, we can think that candidate Roh is likely to fall into the dilemma that he can`t state a political route clearly, nor can he evade the point.

Indeed, this is not a dilemma following strategic judgment in the election.

It would be better for candidate Roh to clearly state his standpoint, although he changes or persists with his existing opinion on a particular issue.

Our society is going through procedure of democratization and pluralism successfully.

The general feature of democratized and pluralistic society is that the majority of people have a moderate stance, and progressive and conservative people are in the minority.

As our society has such general features, it is favorable for candidate Roh to re-arrange his stance towards a moderate route where the majority of votes are.

People who do not trust “changing word” and are disappointed by a change of stance would obviously leave candidate Roh. However, compared to votes that can be gained, losing votes would be limited.

Leading people, who caused Roh wind, are not only limited to progressive 20`s and 30`s.

People who are tired of “gate” government started to support candidate Roh who looks fresh and this can be the origin of Roh wind.

Now, if candidate Roh can give the impression to voters that he is a fresh and reliable politician of moderates, he can recover his support rate which is declining.

Perhaps, candidate Roh hopes that candidate Lee`s policy is extremely conservative.

If so, he can drive candidate Lee as a conservative power and propagate himself nearer to the moderates, which is mouthpiece of majority.

Of course, candidate Lee must know this.

Candidate Lee might also hope that candidate Roh`s policy would be too progressive.

Then, he can drive candidate Roh into radical progressive power position and publicize himself on behalf of majority.

During the rest of the 6 months from now on, if candidate Roh doesn`t define clear viewpoints on important issues like unification and security matters, which is directly connected to national survival, support rate could steadily drop down.

How would candidate Lee cope with the forum by the Kwanhun club?

We will have to observe the forum`s performance of candidate Lee.

Kim Woo-Sang (Prof. in Yonsei University, Politics)