Roh Moo-Hyun 43 Percent, Lee Hoi-Chang 32.9 Percent

A public opinion poll conducted by Dong-a Ilbo and the Korea Research Center (KRC) by calling 1,526 adults in the nation on May 1 showed that the Millennium Democratic Party presidential candidate Roh Moo Hyun was leading in a two-way contest with former president of the Grand National Party Lee Hoi-Chang by 43.0 percent versus 32.9 percent, a margin 10.1 percent points.

The difference of the support rates of the two candidates is similar to the poll conducted one month ago, which then was 10.7 percent points, but the group of undecided increased a little from then 20.1 percent to 24.1 percent. The share of undecided group among the respondents increased relatively in Taegu-North Kyoungsang Province (from 19.3 percent to 32.5 percent) and Daejeon-Chungcheong Province (from 22.4 percent to 32.2 percent).

However, in the probability-of-win question, former president Lee took a lead against candidate Roh by 40.9 percent versus 28.7 percent. In the favorite party question, 24.8 percent of the respondents preferred GNP and 23.3 percent favored MDP.

In a simulated three-way contest among candidates Roh, Lee, and Rep. Park Geun-Hye, candidate Roh took 38.3 percent, candidate Lee took 31.4 percent, and Rep. Park trailed with 10.2 percent. In addition, in a simulated three-way race adding Rep. Chung Mong-Joon instead of Rep. Park, candidate Roh led the race with 37.9 percent, followed by Lee Hoi-Chang 31.8 percent, and Rep. Chung 8.3 percent.

Respondents favored GNP candidate Lee Myoung-Park with 35.4 percent and MDP candidate Kim Min-Seok with 35.1 percent in a simulated Seoul mayor election

In relation to the political reformation, 63.7 percent of the respondent voiced that a political reformation based on ideology and policy is needed, and the respondents preferred a new democratic alliance (41.6 percent) to a conservative alliance (16.4 percent)

The sample error of the survey is ¡¾2.5% points in 95 percent credibility level.

sunny60@donga.com