Fierce Contest for Last Ticket of Playoffs

Which team will become a final winner in the contest with a probability of `five to one`?

As the 2001 professional baseball pennant race brings to an end, the contest for a last spot of the playoffs becomes hazy. It is for the first time that the last place is not determined with just 10 games left in the professional baseball history. According to the result of the remaining games, the last place LG may take a fourth place and the fourth place Lotte may fall down to the last place. Let us look for the variables of the contest for the fourth place.

▼ Beggars Cannot Be Choosers.

Last weekend, the Samsung, the Hyundai, and the Doosan, which had already clinched the playoff spot, were defeated by the low-ranking teams. It would be more correct to say that they threw the games. Since those teams began to prepare for the playoffs irrespective of the game result, they played loosely using bench members. The Hanhwa and the LG are scheduled to play most games with the high-ranking teams.

▼ Which team would be advantageous?

Behind the fourth place Lotte by 0.001, the Hanhwa has the most advantageous position because it still has 8 games to play. Even if the Lotte wins all four remaining games, the Hanhwa will be able to advance to the playoffs with just 6 wins and 2 losses. In this case, both teams tie at 62 wins, 4 draws and 67 losses, the Hanhwa moves up to the postseason since the Hanhwa has been superior in head-to-head matches with the Lotte. The seventh place SK and the eighth place LG still have a chance according to the result of other teams` matches, if they sweep the remaining games.

▼ Great War In Thanksgiving Day

The experts analyzed that although every possibility was possible, the fourth place would be determined during the Thanksgiving holiday. On 2nd and 3rd after the Thanksgiving Day, two game series between Lotte and LG, and between Kia and Hanhwa will be held at Pusan and Kwangju respectively. There will be no holiday for the players.

▼ In Case Of Reaching The Same Winning Percentage

In case that two teams take the fourth place teams with the same winning percentage, the last berth for the playoffs will be determined by the result of the head-to-head matches during the season. If the head-to-head match result is also the same, the playoffs ticket will be attributed to the team that earned more scores. In case that three teams record the same winning percentage, the fourth place will be determined the most scores. The head-to-head match result marked the complex form like the food chain. The Lotte has been superior to the Kia, the Hanhwa to the Lotte, and the Kia to the Hanhwa. In case that three teams ties, the Lotte (706) leads the scores over the Kia (654) and the Hanhwa (614).

Kim Sang-Soo ssoo@donga.com