Korean Economy To Recover in Oct. at Earliest : Survey

70 percent of economists anticipated that the domestic economy will begin to recover from the 4th quarter of this year or next year. And 20 percent of economists evaluated positively the overall economic policy of the current government.

The survey research on `the Evaluation and Prospect of Korea Economy` illustrated the economists` prediction about the impending recovery phase of Korea`s economy. This survey was conducted to 50 economic experts from an academic field, government-run or civic economic research institutions, largest companies, foreign or venture companies, and financial companies, by Donga Ilbo`s economy department and financial department.

Forty percent of respondents answered that the growth rate of Korea`s economy will be 3 percent (3.5-3.9 percent). And thirty percent of respondents answered that it will be `4.0-4.4 percent`, and `4.5-4.9 percent` (14 percent) and `less than 3 percent`(12 percent) followed it.

Regarding the question, ``Did the domestic economy hit the bottom?``, 52 of respondents answered that ``it is hard to say``, 16 percent of them answered that ``it already hit the bottom``, and 32 percent of them responded that ``it did not hit the bottom yet``.

Forty percent of respondents predicted that Korea`s economy will begin to recover from the last quarter of this year. And `since next year` was 30 percent and `third quarter` was 24 percent. But nobody answered that the recovery of the economy already begun.

68 percent of respondents answered that the increase rate of consumer price will reach at 4 percent level, and 80 percent of respondents answered the unemployment rate will be at 4 percent level this year.

Regarding the overall evaluation of President Kim Dau-Jung administration for the last three years, `mediocre` was 44 percent. 36 percent of respondents evaluated negatively to the current government`s economic policy.—`generally poor`(30 percent) and `gravely at fault` (6 percent). On the other side, however, just 20 percent of respondents answered that the government `generally well`, and nobody responded to the government `wonderful job`

The majority of respondents put `ceaseless corporate restructuring` (54 percent) and `activation of the economy`(30 percent) in the top priority of the government`s economic policy. Regarding what people thought about major factor to influence on Korea`s economy, 64 percent of respondents counted on foreign factor such as the economic situation of the U. S. and Japan and `completion of restructuring`(20 percent) followed.

Regarding the compilation of a revised supplementary budget, 70 percent of respondents answered that `the compilation of a revised supplementary budget should be determined after observing the economic situation.` But the respondents who supported the `early compilation of a revised supplementary budge` policy of the ruling party were no more than 16 percent. And 14 percent of them answered that there is no need to establish a supplementary budget.

And finally, regarding the demand on the loosening the regulations such as the abolition of equity investments limit and the designation of 30 largest companies, the respondents who agreed in general (54 percent) were a little bit more than those who did not agree on in general (40 percent).

Kwon Soon-Hwal shkwon@donga.com