Korean peninsula vs. Bush adm. (3) Revision of North Korean aid policy

(1) Will N.K.-U.S. framework change?
(2) Powell`s Korea policy
(3) Revision of North Korean aid policy
(4) Impact of NMD and TMD
(5) Reduction of U.S. forces in Korea
(6) How to coordinate North Korea policies?
(7) Pressure to rise for market opening

"No Access, No Aid."

This is the principle of the World Food Program (WFP)'s aid to North Korea. This means that unless transparency is insured, it will not give a grain of rice to the North. Underlying the principle, which mirrors that of the United States Red Cross, is its apprehension that any aid goods to the communist state might be diverted to the North Korean military.

In fact, the WFP is demanding Pyongyang to allow it to strictly monitor the process of distribution of food aid as a precondition for the assistance.

At its five local offices in the North, 56 WFP officials supervise the food distribution. The organization suspended aid to 48 out of 211 districts, including Yongpyong in Pyongbuk and Jungku in Pyongyang, where monitoring was restricted.

The incoming Bush administration also has made it clear that the U.S. would enforce stricter monitoring than ever before. Secretary of State-designate Colin Powell said Wednesday at his Senate confirmation hearing that the U.S. would not give anything to Pyongyang unless North Korea does something in return.

According to the WFP, the North will suffer shortages of 1.5 million tons of food annually for the next several years. The Bush administration has announced that it would not continue to provide aid to the North unless Pyongyang proves its sincerity through concrete action.

The Bush administration is of the view that the outgoing Clinton administration left itself at the mercy of North Korean threats to develop and use weapons of mass destruction (WMD), specifically pointing to the North's nuclear and missile development programs. The Bush administration's approach was articulated by Robert Manning, senior fellow of the U.S. Foreign Affairs Association and a backer of the former Texas governor.

He said the Bush administration regards the deal between the Clinton administration and the North Korean leadership as a sort of fraud. North Korean Defense Commission Chairman Kim Jong-Il made substantial gains while giving the U.S. nothing, he said, adding that Pyongyang is trying to get even more aid by continuing to pose a military threat.

The Bush government's requests for strict reciprocity and transparency could trigger friction with the Pyongyang leadership and may put indirect pressure on Seoul.

When Hyundai Group's Mt. Kumgang tour project was launched, the U.S. opposed the Korean company's agreement to make cash payments to the North, fearing that the money would be diverted to its military. And the U.S. maintains a negative position on a North Korean proposal to have Seoul supply to that country with electricity.

The Bush administration's hard-line stance toward Pyongyang is expected to bolster the position of the main opposition Grand National Party (GNP) and other conservatives in the South.

The GNP asserted that incoming Secretary of State Powell's remarks echoed the party's stance and demanded the government to revise its North Korea policy.

If and when the Seoul government's key policies toward the North, keynoted by the so-called sunshine policy of engagement and the pursuit of reconciliation and cooperation, begin to clash with those of the new U.S. administration, inter-Korean rapprochement efforts here could lose steam.

On the other hand, the inauguration of the Bush government could provide momentum for a better tripartite relationship. If Pyongyang complies with U.S. requests for reciprocity and transparency, improved relations with the North may result. This is largely dependent upon North Korea's attitude.