South Korean politicians plan by-election strategies

As South Korea approaches the June 3 local elections, focus is shifting to parliamentary by-elections and the districts that could draw high-profile opposition candidates. Tensions are mounting between former People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon and Jo Guk, leader of the Reform Korea Party.

“Nation, stop hesitating and hiding. Let’s meet,” Han said, directly challenging Jo. Jo responded, “Once I make my choice, if Han follows, I will respond then.”

At least eight constituencies are effectively set for by-elections, including Incheon Gyeyang-eul and Yeonsu-gap, Ulsan Nam-gap, Asan-eul in South Chungcheong, Pyeongtaek-eul and Ansan-gap in Gyeonggi, and Gunsan–Gimje–Buan-gap in North Jeolla. A by-election will also take place in Busan Buk-gap if Democratic Party of Korea lawmaker Jeon Jae-su wins the party’s mayoral primary. Additional contests could arise depending on the outcomes of regional party primaries.

Despite the growing speculation, Han, Jo, and former Democratic Party leader Song Young-gil have kept their decisions private. Jo has promised to announce his choice by mid-April, Han said his constituency is not yet determined, and Song indicated he will defer to the party regarding his former seat in Incheon Gyeyang-eul.

Political calculations are complex. Jo must chart a path for the Reform Korea Party, Han seeks influence in the conservative realignment, and Song needs to secure his role within the pro-Lee Jae-myung faction. Analysts say winning a seat in these by-elections is critical for all three to solidify their political influence.

Some candidates may delay their decision until the end of April, as official by-election constituencies will only be finalized once incumbents resign. The Democratic Party’s Seoul primary is scheduled for April 19, the People Power Party’s Daegu primary will conclude April 26, and the final confirmation of vacated constituencies is expected on April 30.

Delaying a decision carries political risks. Waiting too long may appear as a calculated move to run in safer districts rather than a bold political choice. Speculation includes Song running in Gwangju, Jo in North Jeolla, and Han in Daegu. Running in a party stronghold may increase election chances but could limit political impact and reduce strategic value. Analysts note that in 2022, former lawmaker Ahn Cheol-soo chose Gyeonggi Seongnam Bundang-gap over the symbolic Incheon Gyeyang-eul, where President Lee Jae-myung ran. While Ahn won decisively, his political visibility gained little from the choice.

Conversely, contesting a difficult constituency can strengthen a politician’s profile regardless of outcome. A victory offers momentum, while a defeat leaves symbolic weight. Jo could reinforce his standing as a potential presidential contender by running in his hometown of Busan. Han could turn Busan Buk-gap, the only Democratic stronghold in the city, into a key battleground. Song may gain leverage by challenging Ulsan Nam-gap, previously won by a People Power Party candidate.

Voters often remember the rationale behind a candidate’s choice. A principled challenge in a competitive district can serve as a stepping stone for future political influence. Candidates still have time to declare their intentions and may emerge as the standout figures of this election cycle.