Japan’s assertive policies challenge Korea ahead of APEC summit

A senior South Korean government official said, “It is now Japan’s turn to act,” referring to relations under Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. The official noted that Korean resident Lee Jae-myung moved quickly to strengthen the South Korea-Japan partnership despite domestic concerns in Japan.

Takaichi has drawn controversy for past remarks, including suggestions to attend “Takeshima Day” and comments on Yasukuni Shrine visits. Sending National Security Office chief Wi Sung-rak to Japan on her first day in office was seen as a subtle signal to sustain momentum in bilateral relations.

The initial tone appears constructive. Takaichi called South Korea an important neighbor and expressed appreciation for Korean culture, including K-dramas, cosmetics, and cuisine. She also postponed her customary autumn visit to Yasukuni Shrine. Ahead of her first meeting with President Lee in Gyeongju on Oct. 30, she signaled a two-track approach: pursue cooperation while managing historical issues quietly.

Analysts warn that Takaichi’s emphasis on a “strong Japan” could become a flashpoint in bilateral relations. As leader of a coalition with the Japan Innovation Party, which prioritizes defense expansion, she repeatedly stressed “strength” and “security” in her first parliamentary address. She immediately ordered a review of Japan’s three major security documents revised three years ago and indicated plans to consider nuclear-powered submarines.

South Korea’s diplomatic strategy faces challenges as Japan accelerates its push to become a more militarily capable normal state. This aligns with the Trump administration’s America-first policies, reinforcing Japan’s rationale for expanding its defense capabilities. Just before visiting South Korea, President Trump met Takaichi in Japan and acknowledged the country’s significant military build-up and purchase of U.S. equipment.

A government official said the alignment of Japan’s regional military ambitions, U.S. focus on containing China, and emphasis on burden sharing could limit South Korea’s influence in the trilateral South Korea-U.S.-Japan framework. This dynamic differs from past instances when the U.S. mediated historical disputes between Seoul and Tokyo.

Japan also proposed combining the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan Strait, and South China Sea into a single operational theater to counter China and North Korea. The plan, initially called “One Theater” and now referred to as OCEAN, could become a second phase of the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” strategy launched by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. South Korea faces a delicate challenge in balancing pragmatic diplomacy with national interests amid Japan’s assertive return.