U.S. pushes allies to clarify Taiwan war roles

The Financial Times (FT) reported that the U.S. government has asked Japan and Australia to clarify what roles they would play if a conflict were to break out between the U.S. and China over Taiwan. The U.S. is demanding that its key allies in the Asia-Pacific region present specific plans for how they would respond in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan that leads to war with the U.S. After the report was published, the U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby acknowledged the request on social media. Colby is known as one of the architects of defense policy under the second Trump administration.

The U.S. demand suggests that its allies should be prepared to be drawn into a potential U.S.-China war. Earlier this year, then-candidate Donald Trump had not clearly stated his commitment to defending Taiwan. However, the U.S. Department of Defense has since internally circulated interim strategic guidance prioritizing the prevention of a Chinese takeover of Taiwan. This document is expected to form the foundation of the new National Defense Strategy (NDS), which may be announced as early as September. Colby's question to Japan and Australia appears to be a form of pressure ahead of the NDS announcement, urging them to define their roles in a potential Taiwan conflict. This can be seen as a sign that the U.S. is about to formally announce a strategy of focusing its military capabilities on Taiwan's defense and sharing that burden with allies.

South Korea will not be exempt from the fallout of this shift. Colby has consistently argued that U.S. Forces Korea should not be held hostage by the North Korea issue and that their role should be refocused on deterring China, while South Korea should take full responsibility for handling North Korea's conventional threats. In the same context, the U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who visited South Korea last week, emphasized "genuine burden-sharing" among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan while discussing military threats posed by both North Korea and China. This signals that South Korea must now begin preparing for delicate adjustments, including a possible redeployment of U.S. troops in South Korea in the event of a Taiwan crisis and the resulting changes in military posture toward North Korea.

It is only a matter of time before the same question posed to Japan and Australia is directed at South Korea. This could place the Lee Jae-myung administration in a difficult position, as it seeks to improve relations with China. However, with U.S. pressure becoming increasingly real, the South Korean government can no longer deflect the issue with vague answers like "We'll think about it if aliens invade Earth," as was said during the presidential campaign. The idea that "the North Korea issue is unrelated to Taiwan" will not be enough to persuade the U.S. of South Korea's strategic value as an ally. The time has come for South Korea to develop a comprehensive security strategy that integrates the complex realities of the U.S.-ROK alliance, South Korea-China relations, North Korea policy, and the Taiwan issue.