Lee surges ahead as conservative strongholds shift left

With just 13 days remaining until South Korea’s June 3 presidential election, a sharp reversal in regional dynamics has emerged between the two leading candidates—Democratic Party nominee Lee Jae-myung and People Power Party nominee Kim Moon-soo. Compared to the 2022 election, where conservative candidate Yoon Suk-yeol won in 10 of the country’s 17 major cities and provinces, recent polling suggests Lee is now leading Kim in 15 of those regions, including key battlegrounds.

Lee’s gains are especially notable outside the traditionally conservative regions of Daegu–North Gyeongsang (TK) and Busan–Ulsan–South Gyeongsang (PK), where Kim still holds a lead—but with narrowing margins.

In the 2022 race, Yoon defeated Lee in 10 regions, including Seoul, Daejeon, and Gangwon. Lee secured victories only in Gyeonggi Province and Incheon, in addition to his stronghold in the Honam region.

Now, voter sentiment in conservative strongholds appears to be shifting. A poll commissioned by the Maeil Shinmun and conducted by Hangil Research on May 17–18 surveyed 1,111 adults in the TK region. It found Lee polling at 31.2% and Kim at 54.2%. While Kim remains ahead, the 23-point gap marks a dramatic reduction from the 51-point lead Yoon had over Lee in the same region during the last election.

In the PK region, where Yoon previously led Lee by nearly 20 points, the latest Korea Gallup poll shows the race has tightened considerably, with Lee and Kim now within the margin of error—highlighting a competitive contest in what was once considered safe conservative territory.


Hye-Ryung Choi herstory@donga.com