Lee Jae-myung tops presidential suitability poll with 41% support

Former Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung has emerged as the frontrunner in the race for South Korea’s presidency, securing 41% support in the latest National Barometer Survey (NBS) measuring public sentiment on potential candidates. This marks the first time since January — when the question was added to the weekly poll — that Lee has surpassed the 40% threshold.

The survey, conducted April 21–23 by Embrain Public, Kstat Research, Korea Research, and Hankook Research, polled 1,005 adults nationwide through telephone interviews using mobile virtual numbers. The poll has a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level and a response rate of 20%. Full details are available on the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.

Asked who they believed was most suitable as the next president, 41% of respondents chose Lee. He was followed by Kim Moon-soo, former Minister of Employment and Labor, and Hong Joon-pyo, former Mayor of Daegu, each with 10%. Former Justice Minister Han Dong-hoon received 8%, while lawmakers Ahn Cheol-soo and Lee Jun-seok of the Reform Party both garnered 3%. The share of respondents who answered “none,” “don’t know,” or did not respond was 18%, down from 23% the previous week.

Lee also held a commanding lead in all hypothetical three-way matchups. Against Kim Moon-soo and Lee Jun-seok, Lee polled at 46%, compared to 25% for Kim and 9% for Lee. In a scenario with Hong Joon-pyo and Lee Jun-seok, Lee again received 46%, while Hong garnered 26% and Lee 7%. He received 45% in a matchup with Han Dong-hoon and Lee Jun-seok, compared to Han’s 21% and Lee’s 8%. Against Ahn Cheol-soo and Lee Jun-seok, Lee led with 46%, while Ahn and Lee received 17% and 7%, respectively.

Among the final four candidates of the conservative People Power Party (PPP) — narrowed down from an initial field of eight — 14% of respondents said Hong Joon-pyo was the most suitable, followed by Han Dong-hoon (13%), Kim Moon-soo (11%), and Ahn Cheol-soo (8%). Among PPP supporters, Kim led with 28%, followed by Hong (26%), Han (22%), and Ahn (3%).

When asked what factors were most important in choosing a presidential candidate, 35% cited “leadership and crisis management.” This was followed by “integrity and ethical standards” at 20%, “feasibility of policy pledges” (16%), “change or continuity of regime” (9%), “ideology or political orientation” (7%), and “being different from establishment politicians” (5%).

On the broader direction of the next presidential election, 50% of respondents said an opposition candidate should win to bring about a change in government, while 39% said a ruling party candidate should win to continue the current administration.


안규영기자 kyu0@donga.com