Victor Cha warns of full USFK pullout over policy clash

A warning emerged that the Trump administration may withdraw its entire U.S. Forces stationed in South Korea (USFK) if the incoming South Korean government refuses to embrace USFK's "strategic flexibility."

Victor Cha, Korean Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), stated on June 2 in his written Q&A-style commentary posted on the CSIS website that South Korea's new government must make a critical decision whether to accept the "strategic flexibility," which entails repositioning the role of the USFK. Cha added that if South Korea rejects the concept, President Trump may consider it a free rider and take retaliatory measures, which may lead to the complete withdrawal of the USFK.

Regarding the background of the Trump administration’s consideration of USFK reductions, Cha said that "this measure derives from a stated objective of the Trump administration to reposition and augment its forces in the Indo-Pacific to focus on prevailing in a conflict with China over Taiwan and within the First Island Chain (which spans from Japan’s Okinawa through to Taiwan and the Philippines)." He further explained that the move also reflects the principle of the Trump administration, which is that American allies should assume more responsibility for their national defense. It indicates that the Trump administration believes that South Korea is capable of managing its own defense.

The Pentagon denied the possibility of reducing USFK, as recently reported by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ); however, Cha noted that such discussions are likely taking place among U.S. authorities. Stating that if the withdrawal plan currently under discussion may be executed, he argued the number of U.S. troops in Korea would fall below 20,000, marking the lowest level since the Korean War, adding that the 4,500 troops mentioned in the WSF report "approximate the size of the Stryker Brigade Combat Team." The Stryker Brigade Combat Team, mainly specializing in lightweight wheeled armored vehicles, has been rotationally deployed since 2022 and typically consists of around 5,000 personnel.

Cha predicted that whether to embrace the USFK’s strategic flexibility may trigger sensitive political repercussions. He assessed that South Korea's acceptance of strategic flexibility could send a positive signal to the U.S. but convey an opposite message to China that it would stand with the U.S. in the event of a Taiwan-related contingency. He further noted that at this critical juncture, when such a strategic decision must be made, the South Korean government is simultaneously facing economic pressures from the Trump administration, including reciprocal tariffs as well as tariffs on cars and steel.


Jin-Woo Shin niceshin@donga.com