Graham Allison raises alarm over 'Thucydides Trap' as U.S.-China tensions rise"

Graham Allison, the renowned political scientist and professor at Harvard Kennedy School, has warned that while the ongoing U.S.-China tariff conflict is unlikely to escalate into outright war due to deep mutual interdependence, the risk of falling into the historic “Thucydides Trap” remains high if both nations continue to pursue rivalry over cooperation.

Speaking at the China Forum hosted at Harvard University, Allison emphasized that the United States and China are intricately linked across critical sectors including trade, finance, and climate change initiatives, according to the South China Morning Post.

Allison drew a historical parallel to the Cold War, noting that the United States and the Soviet Union, despite the threat of nuclear conflict, managed to avoid direct war out of mutual fear of destruction. “This lesson,” he said, “can and should be applied to the U.S.-China relationship today.” However, he cautioned that if both countries prioritize competition over coordination, they risk becoming further entrapped in a cycle of escalating tension.

“Thucydides Trap” originates from the Peloponnesian War in the 5th century B.C. Greece, where a rising Athens threatened the dominance of Sparta, prompting a brutal conflict that ultimately led to the downfall of both city-states and the eventual rise of Macedonia. The concept was named after the Greek historian Thucydides, who chronicled the events.

Allison popularized the term in his 2017 book Destined for War, arguing that such power transitions often result in conflict. He applied the framework to the present-day rivalry between the United States, as the established global hegemon, and China, as the ascendant challenger.

Tensions between the two powers have recently intensified. On April 7, U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a sweeping 104% tariff on Chinese imports, significantly escalating economic hostilities. Further inflaming relations, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance made inflammatory remarks on Fox News on April 3, stating, “We borrow money from Chinese peasants to buy stuff, and the stuff is made by Chinese peasants.”


김윤진 기자 kyj@donga.com