N. Korea, Russia sign a defense pact amid new cold war sentiment

Article 4 of the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between North Korea and Russia stipulates: “In the event either party faces an armed invasion from an individual state or multiple states, the other party shall provide military and other assistance using all available means without delay.” The new agreement, unveiled by North Korea on Thursday, also commits to establishing a negotiation channel in response to direct threats, institutionalizing joint measures to bolster defense capabilities, and fostering military technology cooperation in areas such as space, biology, and nuclear energy.

This treaty, recently signed by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin, can be seen as a revival of the automatic military intervention provision from the Cold War-era alliance between North Korea and the former Soviet Union, marking the reestablishment of the bilateral alliance that ended in 1996. Article 4 of the new treaty mirrors Article 1 of the 1961 South-North Korea treaty, with the addition of the phrase "in accordance with Article 51 of the United Nations Charter and the laws of the DPRK and the Russian Federation." It also introduces clauses for “immediate negotiations in the event of a threat.” Fundamentally, it signifies an alliance that surpasses the mutual defense commitments between South Korea and the U.S.

However, it would be premature to declare this treaty a complete restoration of the alliance based solely on its content. While Kim emphasized “alliance,” Putin referred only to “qualitative upgrades.” What is clear, though, is that this agreement arises from a convergence of interests between two isolated states. In the short term, Russia requires North Korean ammunition and missiles for its conflict in Ukraine. At the same time, North Korea seeks advanced Russian military technology to enhance its nuclear and missile capabilities, shedding light on the strategic motivations behind this pact.

As North Korea and Russia navigate this new Cold War paradigm, the implications of their cooperation are likely to extend far beyond the Korean Peninsula, potentially reshaping the global security landscape. The alliance may engage in provocative actions, such as joint military exercises, under the guise of an anti-American, anti-Western front. Moreover, the prospect of Russia deploying troops to support North Korea's aggressive actions or intervening in a crisis on the Korean Peninsula cannot be ruled out.

The dangerous alignment between North Korea and Russia presents a significant challenge to the international community, including South Korea. The South Korean government has emphasized the need for a "stern and decisive response," which involves more than just fortifying the ROK-U.S. alliance and coordinating international efforts. Confident in its ability to maintain stable relations with Russia by respecting mutual red lines, the government should strategically leverage its influence to apply pressure on Russia, explore opportunities within its relationship with China, and engage in nuanced diplomacy to prevent the North Korea-Russia alliance from crossing critical thresholds.