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Ukraine is in fight against loss of support

Posted November. 23, 2023 07:55,   

Updated November. 23, 2023 07:55

한국어

Ukraine made minor but significant progress in the battle against Russian troops on the southern frontlines last week. Reportedly, it made hard-earned advances into the eastern part of the Dnipro River and gained the upper hand against the opponents. This is one of the most outstanding achievements that the Ukrainian military has recently made. At the same time, the country gives the United States and Western countries a message that it is too early to be pessimistic about the results of the ongoing war.

It is also true that Ukraine failed to deliver counterattacks for more than five months from early June onward. Even with its mission partly successful in reclaiming some villages once occupied by Russian troops, there was little change to both sides’ frontlines. Little progress in the war may be attributable to Western countries’ delayed arms supply. Nevertheless, experts say that it is not just that Ukraine has not been up to expectations but that it has failed.

Initially, Ukraine aimed to recover all the lost territory including Crimea annexed by Russia. However, it has never been easy for it to make its way through the enemy’s lines entrenched by multiple layers of minefields, foxholes, traps, and fortresses. When the Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief compared the current situation to the stalemate during World War I, anticipating that the country is less likely to make any breakthrough, he came under criticism from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Ukraine will soon be put at a disadvantage due to seasonal changes. After black soil on the Ukrainian side is soon to turn muddy during the wet season in fall, brutally cold winter follows. Around that time, Ukraine will inevitably move from the offense to the defense. Even if drone shells are likely to continue from both sides, the muddy soil and cold winter weather will hold back the troops for a while, with little chance of frontline change. President Zelensky also said anxiously that he does not have much time, calling for prompt action.

Some diplomatic experts and think tanks in Western countries argue publicly that Ukraine should reinvent its strategic blueprint. As the insignificant progress made in its counterattack mission only proves that reclaiming the lost land is too distant a dream as of now, they make a case that President Zelenskyy needs to put a stop to the ongoing intensive offense so that he can move on to a long-term defense program and negotiate a ceasefire.

The fate of a country is not determined merely by a strong will and a sense of purpose. A cool-headed strategy should be set up by capitalizing on internal capacity, supply, and support from the outside and a precise comparative analysis of military capabilities against the enemy. Ukraine will be under greater pressure from Western leaders to make a practical choice and seek an ultimate triumph based on democracy and economic prosperity. South Korea may relate to Ukraine facing a make-or-break moment in that it had to start a ceasefire negotiation against its will during the Korean War more than 70 years ago.