Trump leads Biden in swing states by 5, poll shows

With a year to go until the U.S. presidential election scheduled for Nov. 5 next year, opinion polls in 'swing states'—critical to deciding the election outcome—indicate that President Joe Biden is trailing behind former President Donald Trump in most areas. Trump was also deemed more competent by respondents in key issues identified for the election, such as the economy and foreign policy. Within the ruling Democratic Party, doubts about President Biden's competitiveness in the election have been raised, with some even suggesting that he should not seek re-election.

According to a poll conducted by The New York Times (NYT) from Oct. 22 to Nov. 3 and released on Sunday, in a head-to-head presidential contest, 48% of respondents said they would vote for former President Trump, which is 4 percentage points ahead of President Biden, who received 44%—a lead outside the margin of error. Regionally, former President Trump was leading President Biden by 4 to 11 percentage points in five states, including Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada. President Biden was only 2 percentage points ahead, within the margin of error, in Wisconsin.

The NYT predicted that if such opinions in the battleground states continue until next year's election, former President Trump could secure well over the 'magic number' of 270 electoral votes, potentially amassing as many as 300.

Despite centering his re-election campaign on his economic policy, dubbed 'Bidenomics,' and his ability to manage the conflicts in the Middle East, President Biden received lower ratings in both areas than former President Trump. When asked, 'Which candidate do you trust more with economic policy?' Fifty-nine percent of voters in the six battleground states chose former President Trump, showing a significant gap over President Biden's 37%. Regarding the conflict between Israel and the Palestinian armed group Hamas, 50% of respondents believed that Trump would handle the situation better, while only 39% of voters chose President Biden.


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