N. Korea’s recon satellite launch fails again

As announced at around 3:50 a.m. on Thursday, North Korea launched the Cheonrima-1 rocket loaded with a military reconnaissance satellite (Manrikyong-1) into the southern airspace of the peninsula, but their attempt failed. The North Korean space agency said, "The rocket's first and second stages performed normally, but an anomaly occurred in the emergency explosion system during the third stage flight." The communist regime also announced plans for a third launch in October.

This marks North Korea's second failed attempt at launching a military satellite, following a similar failure in May. However, rather than focusing on the repeated failures, attention should be drawn to the “evolution of their threat” driven by technological advancements. In May, the second stage of the propulsion system failed to ignite, causing the missile to crash into the sea relatively early in its trajectory, but this time, the missile functioned properly up to the third stage, with the final debris falling into the waters east of the Philippines. Additionally, if North Korea's explanation of an emergency explosion system issue leading to the failure is accurate, correcting this error could be relatively more feasible than addressing engine malfunction. The emergency explosion system is installed on flying objects such as missiles and drones, designed to deliberately explode in situations of trajectory deviation or loss of control after launch.

If North Korea indeed intends to place Manrikyong-1 in low Earth orbit, it should serve two purposes: reconnaissance of military facilities in South Korea, Japan, and the U.S. base in Guam, and refinement of accuracy for intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) targeting towards the United States. However, the foreign ministers of South Korea, the U.S., and Japan placed weight on the possibility that yesterday's military satellite launch might not have been the primary goal. While outwardly asserting the right to space utilization, they construed it as an ICBM provocation. North Korea has previously tested the Hwasong-17 and Hwasong-18 missiles using a relatively simpler lofted trajectory launch method. The latest satellite launch could be an experiment with a standard launch angle, a departure from their prior approach. The military authorities who retrieved the wreckage of Manrikyong-1 that fell into the West Sea expressed doubt about North Korea's announcement, explaining that the debris was too crude to hold much value as a military satellite. Whether it's a satellite launch rocket or an ICBM, they involve largely similar technology. The UN Security Council deemed North Korea's ballistic missile technology usage illegal after the 2006 Taepodong-2 launch, a motion supported by China and Russia.

Over the past two decades, North Korea has accumulated experiences from both successful and unsuccessful missile provocations. To counter this, South Korea, the U.S., and Japan must urgently establish and operate a joint missile early warning system according to their mutual agreement reached by the heads of state. Additionally, efforts to disrupt North Korea's missile funding, such as through cryptocurrency hacking prevention, need to be stepped up.