The Key in Pyongyang’s Declaration

North Korea submitted its nuclear declaration yesterday, putting the issue to an end six months after its original expiration at the end of last year.

The declaration signals a long-awaited beginning of the final three stage of denuclearization after completing step one (closure of its nuclear facility) and step two (denuclearization and report on its nuclear materials). With this new development, the six-party talks that have been suspended since last October is likely to gain momentum.

However, not a few experts point out that there is still a long road ahead for North Korea’s dismantling of nuclear materials. They said this is no easy matter given that the verification alone takes at least one year and moreover North Korea’s report missed the details on its nuclear weapons.

○ Contents of the declaration

It is said that the report running tens of pages contains the details about the amount of its weapons grade plutonium North Korea has produced since 1987, its use of the materials, the list of nuclear-related facilities and explanations including its major reactor in Yongbyon.

Some experts said a complete nuclear declaration would only be possible when the verification is completed," but the declaration itself is meaningful in that North Korea has for the very first time come clean about its nuclear activities including its amount of plutonium, which is the main ingredient of nuclear weapons.

North Korea, however, reportedly did not reveal the number of nuclear weapons Pyongyang has obtained. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill said Tuesday, “It is important for plutonium to be completely and exactly reported in the declaration among its nuclear materials.” His remark indicates that the nuclear weapons issue is missing in the report.

The declaration is believed to have an unofficial document in regards to the uranium enrichment program (UEP) and the allegation that North Korea collaborated with Syria for the latter’s nuclear development. The document reportedly states North Korea will not refute the concerns raised by the United States, based on the Singapore agreement.

○ Rapidly evolving situations in and around the Korean Peninsula

The six-party talks that have been stalled for the past nine months, are expected to resume soon. The next round of the talks, which will focus on the verification and negotiation on the next phase of dismantling nuclear materials, will take place early July.

Some predict that following the six-party talks, foreign ministerial-level talks are also likely to be held during the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in Singapore, slated for late July. According to the Oct. 3 agreement, the ministerial-level talks should be held in Beijing at an appropriate time. But experts say that given all the ministers from the related six nations are supposed to gather at the forum, chances are high for the meeting to be convened there.

Attention has also been on whether the high-raking officials of the two Koreas and the United States would meet during the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics in early August. U.S. President George W. Bush and President Lee Myung-bak will reportedly participate in the opening ceremony. If North Korean leader Kim Jong Il also attends the ceremony, holding bilateral talks between the two Koreas, or U.S.-North Korea summit talks could be possible, according to some experts.

But many experts believe even if there is a possibility for a high-ranking talk among the interested nations, Kim Yong Nam, chairman of North Korea`s Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly, instead of Kim Jong Il, is more likely to participate.

○ Still challenging process ahead

Most political analysts say that the upcoming stage of denuclearization will be more challenging and difficult than before.

It was reported that North Korea declared 36 to 37 kilograms in plutonium output, falling short of Washington`s estimation of between 35 and 60 kilograms. In this regard, controversy may erupt during the verification procedure over the real amount of plutonium.

The United States made it clear that it would not remove North Korea from the list of terrorism sponsoring countries if Pyongyang does not fully cooperate with the verification of its declaration. During her address at the Heritage Foundation on June 18, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said, “In the next 45 days after that, before those actions go into effect, we would continue to assess the level of North Korean cooperation, in helping to verify the accuracy and completeness of its declaration. If that cooperation is insufficient, we will respond accordingly.”

Former special envoy to North Korea Charles Pritchard also clarified, “Pyongyang notified in April that fissile material and nuclear weapons it has obtained are not subject to dismantling materials,” which implies possible controversy over the scope of the verification.

On the issues over the UEP and nuclear cooperation with Syria, some say those issues are likely to cause cacophony between the United States and North Korea when the current U.S. administration is replaced, since the two governments just concluded with stopgap measures. It is also hard to predict to what extent North Korea’s denuclearization could proceed with the Bush administration whose term is supposed to end this year.

jin0619@donga.com