Disaster Could Signal End to Myanmar Junta

Cyclone Nargis has wreaked havoc on Myanmar, but could also spell doom for the military dictatorship that has tightly controlled the country for decades.

The disaster has killed an estimated 100,000 people and left 1.5 million homeless.

The Boston Globe quoted political experts as saying natural disasters have powerful political consequences, and that nations could undergo major changes while rebuilding in the aftermath of such catastrophes.

A case in point is Myanmar’s neighbors in Southeast Asia, where a tsunami swept through in December 2004. The catastrophe brought about sweeping changes in the regional political landscape.

The 2004 disaster left 120,000 dead and more than 110,000 missing in Indonesia. Aceh, one of the worst-hit regions, was the stronghold of Islamist separatists prior to the tsunami. When relief organizations came to the rescue, however, the Aceh government and rebels initiated negotiations that brought peace to the area. Last year, the region held a free election in which a former rebel was elected to a government post.

In neighboring Sri Lanka, Tamil rebels also cooperated with the Colombo government to rebuild the nation in the aftermath of the disaster. Unfortunately, the island nation saw conflict again after the rebels took up arms again last year.

Relations between Turkey and Greece have also been affected by natural disasters. The two countries had long hated each other, but things changed in 1999 after an earthquake struck the Turkish region of Izmir, killing 45,000. Greece offered relief aid to the victims, something which began to ease tension.

Natural disasters also bring changes to the political landscape in a country. When a government fails to adequately respond to the disaster, its people begin to hold a grudge against it. When their rage hits the ceiling, they eventually demand changes in leadership.

Mark Pelling and Kathleen Dill of King`s College in London have looked into the correlation between natural disasters and revolution. They told the Globe that the more unstable a regime, the bigger the possibility of a major change.

This is exemplified in the massive cyclone that struck the eastern part of Pakistan in 1970, killing 500,000. This led to the founding of Bangladesh by protestors enraged over inadequate relief efforts.

Based on these precedents, some say the efforts of the international community could topple the oppressive Myanmar junta.

The International Herald Tribune said Myanmarese have begun to publicly express their anger against the junta for forcing a constitutional referendum despite the heavy carnage and damage from the cyclone.

The Sunday Herald of Scotland said the international community sees the catastrophe as an opportunity to bring down Myanmar’s military rule.

Andrew Natsios, the former head of the U.S. Agency for International Development, even suggested invading Myanmar in an opinion piece carried by the Wall Street Journal.

The Times of London said French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, also the founder of Doctors Without Borders, has urged the United Nations Security Council to get humanitarian access to Myanmar without the junta’s permission.

He alluded to two U.N. principles: the right to intervene in catastrophic situations as accepted by the U.N. General Assembly in 1990 and the responsibility to protect victims of genocide, ethnic cleansing, war crimes and crimes against humanity adopted in 2005.

Predictably, the United Nations will find it hard to take action with the interests of many member states at stake. What is clear, however, is that Myanmar’s junta faces a tough dilemma in facing pressure from in and out of the nation. Whether it receives global aid or not will determine the fate of the military regime.

spear@donga.com