Only 9% of New Residents in First Dongtan New Town From Seoul

Less than 10% of the new residents in First Dongtan New Town are from Seoul. The new town is located in Hwaseong City, Gyeonggi Province, about a three-hour drive south of Seoul.

This finding casts a doubt on the administration’s plan to construct a second town to attract people away from the Gangnam area in Seoul. The area has been favored due to its rich educational environment and convenient social infrastructure.

According to official statistics obtained by the Dong-A Ilbo, 2,346 people have moved and settled in the town from January 29 to March 22, 2007. Only 217 of them, or 9.2%, are from Seoul.

On the other hand, 82.7% of the new residents (1,939) moved to the new town from other cities in Gyeonggi Province.

Specifically, 28.4% of the residents, or 667, moved from Suwon, followed by 18.8% from Hwaseong, 9.4% from Osan, 7.6% from Yongin, and 2.6% from Anyang.

These facts refute the projections of the government. The government predicted that construction of a second new town in Dongtan would absorb the high residential need in the Gangnam area. Thus, people begin to downgrade its existence as an alternative town to Suwon, one of the largest cities in the province.

Back in January, Construction Minister Lee Yong-sup predicted, “The new town will be equivalent to Bundang in size, and will be constructed at a location where the geographic features can replace those of the three districts in the Gangnam area. So I believe the new town will take up the role of the Gangnam area.”

The demographic features of the new settlers in Dongtan show big differences from those of “first-generation” satellite cities like Ilsan and Bundang.

According to a 1993 report of the Korea Research Institute for Human Settlement, Seoul residents constituted majorities in the 1st-generation cities in most cases. For example, former Seoul residents constituted 72.8% of all new settlers in Bundang, 68% in Ilsan, 61.5% in Pyeongchon, 55.5% in Sanbon, and 29.7% in Jungdong, Bucheon. Across the board, 61.8% of all new residents in these first-generation cities were from Seoul.

If the second town in Dongtan fails to satisfy the demand for residences in Gangnam, the failure is likely to lead to people moving back to the Gangnam area and could spark yet another real estate price hike there.

Professor Cho Joo-hyeon of Konkuk University points out, “Incomplete new town plans of the government will drain out the trust of the people in its policies. Thus, people will beef up their belief that there is no place like Gangnam. Then we will just end up wasting the resources necessary for urban redevelopment, especially for the reconstruction of the [Gangnam] area.”

sukim@donga.com bae2150@donga.com