N. Korea Could Expel Nuclear Inspectors

“Pyongyang could expel nuclear inspectors again if it is not satisfied with their monitoring,” said Ivan Safranchuk, director of the Moscow office of the Center for Defense Information. He also said on February 15, “North Korea can exploit the loopholes in the initial steps to the implementation of the 9.19 Joint Statement.” He is a nuclear expert with experience working in the Russia Policy Institute, a think tank focusing on diplomacy and the security of Russia. He gave the following answers in a recent interview.

- What do you think of the agreement concluded in the latest six-party talks?

“It has many flaws like an unfinished blueprint. The agreement, which seems to be based on the view that humans are born good, could make the efforts of the five countries for naught depending on how the North acts. The biggest problem in the agreement is that it does not have any measures to force the North to implement the initial steps.”

- What talks will be the most difficult in drawing out agreements from North Korea?

“The most difficult ones will be the North-U.S. meeting and the North-Japan meeting to normalize diplomatic ties, which will be held until April 13. The North expects to obtain many concessions in the two talks. If it takes a stronger negotiating position to get what it wants, it may spark a confrontation.”

- South Korea is going to provide 50,000 tons of heavy fuel oil during that period. What do think about it?

“The Russian negotiators in the former Soviet Union who had a meeting with North Korea in the 1980s say that the North used to demand more in negotiations when they were likely to get what they wanted, troubling negotiators. Pyongyang can use the same tactics this time, too.”

- Do you mean North Korea will demand more than the 50,000 tons of oil in the negotiations with the U.S. and Japan?

“Of course they will. If the North thinks that it has nothing – or hardly anything -- to obtain from the two talks, it will leave the negotiating table immediately. If that becomes a reality, Pyongyang could shut out nuclear inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency as it did back in December 2002.”

- Is there any measure to fill the loopholes?

“The countries negotiating with North Korea should make a supplementary agreement to demand the North take responsibility if it breaks the agreement in the coming talks. We need other restrictions besides the threat of UN sanctions against North Korea.”

viyonz@donga.com