Compromise Possible at 6-Party Talks?

How much progress could be made at the six-party talks that are scheduled to resume around February 8?

The Korean and U.S. governments are aiming to agree on an early stage agreement for the abolishment of nuclear program in North Korea, including dismantling a nuclear reactor. Suspending the operation of the 5MW reactor in Yongbyon is included in their plans as well. They want to clearly state when to start nuclear dismantlement in a joint statement if possible.

This message was conveyed to North Korea at the North Korea-U.S. talks in Berlin on January 16-18. The U.S. also said that it was willing to take corresponding measures, such as providing the North with heavy oil.

A diplomatic source noted, “The U.S. is considering reducing the time that takes to dismantle the North’s nuclear program as much as possible through give-and-take negotiations with North Korea”

However, it is very uncertain if the North can accept this plan. North Korea, so far, has demanded the maximum for each of its leverage and moved on to the next stage only after the other sides have accepted its demands.

For example, North Korea could demand heavy oil for freezing its nuclear operations, and want a bigger favor for the actual commencement of nuclear dismantlement. It is also possible that the wish of Korea and the U.S. to resolve the nuclear issue as early as possible would not be realized. North Korea is highly likely to delay the scraping of its nuclear program and demand a lot for tightening the schedule.

For this reason, Foreign Minister Song Min-soon said on January 27, “It is uncertain if the participants will reach an agreement in the next round of talks, and how much progress will be made in the talks is an open question as well,” after wrapping up his visit to China to discuss the six-party talks.

A working-level meeting on the financial sanctions against the North slated for January 30 in Beijing is also expected to directly affect the six-party talks. The meeting is a working-group talk to discuss the issue of the North’s frozen accounts in the Macau-based Banco Delta Asia (BDA).

It is widely believed that if the U.S. doesn’t offer specific measures and schedules for removing its financial sanctions, such as unfreezing some legal money tied in the BDA, North Korea could have a negative attitude about freezing its nuclear operations as well as discussing their abolishment.

Meanwhile, it is expected that the U.S. will raise technical issues, including explaining why it took financial restrictions against the North and the issue of countermeasures to prevent the North from continuing its alleged money laundering and counterfeiting as a major subject for the working-group meeting, and that it would decide its position on the financial sanctions after seeing the North’s attitude at the next round of the six-party talks.

It was reported that the State Department, responsible for the foreign policy of the U.S., was aggressively seeking ways to ease financial sanctions against North Korea, but that the Treasury Department, in charge of financial affairs, largely opposes linking the nuclear issue with financial sanctions on the North.

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