North Has 50kg of Plutonium: Minister

On October 10, the day after North Korea’s nuclear test, major commanders meeting presided by Defense Minister Yoon Kwang-ung was held. It was revealed later on October 25 that during the meeting, hard-line policy toward North Korea was discussed including reviewing the exiting agreement between military authorities of the two Koreas.

During the meeting, Ministry of National Defense and Joint Chief of Staffs reportedly concluded that North Korea had so far secured up to 50 kilograms of weapon-grade plutonium and also considered improving and implementing contingency plans against North Korea.

In addition, in the meeting, an analysis came out that the nuclear weapon produced by North Korea presumably weighed 2 to 3 ton and a total of 82 IL-82 bombers, which can carry such nuclear weapons and drop them in the air, are deployed Uiju and Jangjin bases in North Korea.

These facts are confirmed on October 25 as this newspaper has obtained the documents for major commanders’ meeting on preparation against North Korea’s nuclear test.

This is the first time for the military authorities to estimate the amount of plutonium held by North Korea as much as 50kg.

So far, the Ministry of National Defense’s assessment on North Korea’s nuclear capability was that “the North probably had produced 1 or 2 nuclear weapons out of the plutonium extracted in the early 1990s.”

In the meeting, officials of Defense Ministry also estimated that if North Korea detonates 10 to 20kt nuclear weapon in Yongsan, Seoul, it would result in a total of 1.132 million casualties including 125,000 to 235,000 people dead.

The Defense Ministry also considered an establishment of joint consultative channel among defense ministers of neighboring countries and setting up a standing military committee (MC) between Korea’s chairman of Joint Chief of Staffs and commander of ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command.

In this situation, many people are now raising suspicion about the reason that Defense Minister Yoon Kwang-ung failed to announce to the Korean people the fact that hard-line policies toward North Korea were considered in the major military commanders’ meeting, where major 50 generals were present.

According to the document, participants including Minister Yoon estimated that North Korea had actually produced 6 to 7 nuclear weapons given that 7 to 8 kilograms of plutonium is needed for one nuclear weapon.

However, at the National Defense Committee of National Assembly held on October 13, when Kim Chung-bae, the president of Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA), said, “the amount of plutonium held by North Korea is thought to be enough for 5 to 6 nuclear weapons”, Minister Yoon did refute, “KIDA’s analysis is based on academic data, so it is different from the official view of Ministry of National Defense.”

ysh1005@donga.com