Stick vs. Carrot

Over the countermeasures against North Korea’s announcement that it possesses nuclear weapons and will not take part in the next round of six-party talks, the U.S. has various opinions divided into a hard-line policy to applying economic sanction against North Korea immediately and a moderate policy offering carrots.

It can be explained that it is because the keynotes of the Republican and the Democrat parties are different, and their estimations of U.S. President George W. Bush’s foreign policy toward North Korea are different as well.

The Stick -

Former Secretary of State James Baker weighed in on a hard-line policy, saying on ABC on February 13, “The best policy is to apply economic sanctions against North Korea for its violation of its IAEA NPT commitments and its promise to the world community under a UN Security Council resolution.”

Former Secretary of State James Baker, who is classified as a Republican moderate, said that “usage of military power against North Korea is a very difficult task, however if we have an intention to pay the price, we might do this.”

The newest article in the January 21 edition of the Times reported the opinion of the former US Ambassador to China James Lilley that five participating countries in the next round of six-party talks should rapidly put pressure on North Korea together or solely.

Lilley pointed out that “South Korea can take measures such as the suspension of industrial advances to North Korea and a tourism project, the U.S. can drive forward a proposal of economic sanctions against North Korea under the UN, and Japan can cease shipping commodities to North Korea.”

The Carrot -

Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware (Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee) said on Fox TV on February 13 that “the U.S. should have an intention to provide more carrots,” adding, “Instead, China, South Korea, and Japan should play a heavy role in getting ready to use sticks.”

The newest article in the January 21 edition of Newsweek assessed that “President George W. Bush is enhancing a hard line, mentioning “the end of tyranny” as a priority task in his second inaugural speech, but did not mention a moderate policy toward North Korea in detail. It is not surprising that North Korea showed a sensitive response last week.”

The Newsweek article also said that “Kim Jong Il will come to the negotiation table or will have an intention to freeze its nuclear weapons development programs if there is a proper carrot policy.”

Soon-Taek Kwon Kwon-Heui Hong maypole@donga.com konihong@donga.com