The Conditions of the World in 2003

Keeping up with the current year, what are the leading variables that could determine the conditions of the world in this upcoming year? The representative newsweeklies of America, Times with `New Year`s Outlook`, and the most recent Newsweek with `Major News of 2002` analyzed the issues which will lead the next year`s international world and the hot issues of this ending year.

Time has observed that the directions of Iraq, Iran and North Korea will be the major matter of concerns, which will control next year`s international conditions.

Iraq = The major variation which will control the future of the Iraq in next year is regarding whether or not the 12,000 paged report submitted to UN denying their development of the mass destructive weapon is true or not.

It is unclear if the UNMOVC (Monitoring Verification and Inspection Commission) will be able to find the massive weapon establishments, which is assumed to have been running in secret by Iraq during last four years. It will also be not an easy task to find a proof on Iraq`s development of biochemical weapon. It`s because it has been predicted that in order to avoid the detector of the satellites, Iraqi government has been using moving research rooms such as the large trucks to put their main strength on the weapon development. Also, even if the UN Commission finds out proofs on their development of massive biochemical destructive weapon, it is for sure that Hussein will definitely deny it by firmly saying “I wasn`t aware of it at all.” Considering the internal economical structure of major chemical industries, which have been developed and are owned by civilians, Hussein`s denial will be most likely effective. After all, Times emphasized that it is inevitable for the U.S. to present a clear proof to prove that the report submitted by Iraq is far off from the actual truth.

Iran = There is a high possibility that the wind of the rapid democracy in Iran will blow harder than the collapse of the Saddam Hussein`s government of Iraq.

Last month, around 5,000 Iranian university students gathered in Tehran University and yelled out the slogan `The time has come for the uprising of the people` thus suggested that they would be in the core of the Reformation themselves.

Currently, there have bee enormous conflicting issues between the conservative Judiciary Department based on Islam Commandments and Mohamed Khatami`s administration. If the new measure, which will give greater influences on the national press and military to the President Khatami, doesn`t pass through next year, there is a great possibility that the President and his fellow congressmen will resign one after another. Therefore, Time predicts that if the internal confusion gets too burdensome, the students might come out on the street.

North Korea = North Korea, who has been included in the `Evil of the Axis` with Iran and Iraq, might surprise the world all of sudden by declaring the stoppage on their nuclear development program. Of course for the price of the economical support of the U.S, and the Nonaggressive treaty oath should be the preconditions. However, since the U.S. needs to put their total strength on resolving the issues with Iraq, the U.S. might defer the active problem solving regarding North Korea. Washington has announced that the U.S. will not communicate with North Korea unless it stops the nuclear program development at once but communication is the only key on resolving current crisis.

On the other side, Newsweek looked back at the incident of Daniel Pearl, former Wall Street Journal`s Southwest Asia branch manager who had been kidnapped and murdered by the Islamic armed group and the issues related to the hostage incident at the Culture Theater in Moscow in last October and analyzed that it has been a year of visible incidents of terrorism holding civilians as hostages. On top of these, Newsweek discussed the situations in Iraq, George W. Bush Administration`s declaration of `Evil of the Axis`, Middle Eastern Dispute, Internal troubles in the countries of Central-South America, as the major news which have decorated this year.

Jung-Ahn Kim credo@donga.com