North Korea and U.S., Talks Will Resume Soon

How will the U.S. see the summit meeting between North Korean National Defense Chairman Kim Jung Il and Russian President Vladmir Putin? Donga Ilbo consulted Johns Hopkins University Professor Don Oberdorf, well known in Korea for his book `The Two Koreas` on August 5th.

DA – How do you see the summit talks?

DO - ``There was nothing surprising in the results of the summit. But the summit follows Chairman Kim’s consecutive visits first to Russia, then China, the European Union Representative meeting, last month’s meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Madeline Albright at the South-North Summit, and as such, the summit talks affirms his efforts to actively engage in diplomatic relations.``

DA – But North Korea did not agree to U.S.’s request to reopen dialogue.

DO - ``NK-U.S. relations became complicated due to U.S.’s reconsideration of its policy toward the North before George W. Bush assumed power. The North is apprehensive about the U.S.’s attitude. I am sure there is a technical reason to North Korea postponing talks with the U.S., but I think talks will resume in the near future.``

DA – North Korea and Russia insist that North Korean missile development has peaceable intentions and demand U.S. compliance with the Anti-ballistic Missile treaty. They are opposing U.S. plans to develop a missile defense system.

DO - ``The U.S. will have expected this and will not be concerned about it. I don’t think the summit will place any great obstacles to the progress of U.S. missile defense program. Since the Bush Administration has decided to resume talks with North Korea, the NK-Russia summit won’t have much effect on NK-U.S. relations.``

DA – What do you think about Putin’s statement that he ``understands`` Kim’s demand for withdrawal of U.S. troops from Korea?

DO - ``I want to make two points. First, it contradicts Chairman Kim’s former acknowledgment of the need for U.S. troops at the last South-North Summit. It is not altogether clear what is North Korea’s real position on the U.S. troops issue. Second, President Putin’s statement is a diplomatic figure of speech and does not mean actual backing of the withdrawal. Whether he will actually agree to U.S. withdrawal is questionable, but the words ``understand`` does not mean agreement. In any case, there is no need to place great emphasis on this.``

DA – What kind of influence do you think Russia will have in the peninsula in the future?

DO – ``I don’t think it will have any great influence. Although the two countries discussed the railway connection issue, Russia is not in any position to exercise great influence economically and is dealing with many serious problems within its own borders.``

Han Ki-Heung eligius@donga.com