Housing statistics miss 190,000 units in supply

A significant oversight in the government's housing supply database system resulted in last year's housing supply performance being undercounted by approximately 190,000 units. Despite confirm‎ing these discrepancies, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport chose not to disclose the issue for three months, highlighting a critical lapse in transparency. Typically, housing supply projects take more than five years from approval to occupancy. If the government formulates housing supply plans based on flawed statistics, there is a heightened risk of mismatches, such as oversupply during real estate recessions and undersupply during periods of overheating.

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The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport revealed that among last year's housing supply statistics, the number of permits and approvals increased from 389,000 to 429,000, construction starts rose from 209,000 to 242,000, and completions surged from 316,000 to 436,000. This adjustment was announced yesterday, attributing the discrepancy to the omission of performance data from the maintenance business sector during the housing statistics system's update in June last year. Moreover, over 300 reconstruction and redevelopment supplies were omitted from the second half of last year's statistics, resulting in a sector performance decrease of 33,000 units to 120,000.

The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport reportedly became aware of these errors at the end of January this year and rectified the counting process starting from the results announced in February. However, the delayed announcement raises concerns of governmental silence, seemingly to evade public scrutiny amidst ongoing investigations into allegations of housing price statistics manipulation by the previous administration. Earlier this year, the Ministry also faced issues in preventing errors in the real estate transaction price information collection system.

The government's housing supply statistics serve as a critical gauge of interest for various stakeholders, including construction companies, homeowners, renters, and property investors. Data on construction starts and permits are foundational metrics that are crucial in forecasting housing market trends, providing insights into the future supply of apartments over the next two to five years. Discrepancies between these statistics and actual market conditions can lead to misinformed decisions by individuals and businesses alike.

The credibility of real estate policy has been significantly undermined by a string of inaccuracies in housing statistics, profoundly affecting the lives of citizens. With the supply volume being underestimated by nearly 30% compared to actual figures, it is imperative to recalibrate policies based on this discrepancy. Continued lapses in accuracy will render ineffective any government measures aimed at stabilizing housing prices. In addition to holding those responsible for these errors accountable, there is an urgent need to implement a rigorous system of checks to prevent such inaccuracies from recurring.