Taiwan set to widen income lead over Korea

South Korea’s real per capita gross domestic product is projected to fall more than $10,000 behind Taiwan’s within five years, according to new estimates.

The International Monetary Fund said in its April World Economic Outlook that South Korea’s per capita GDP will reach $37,412 this year, up 3.3 percent from $36,227 a year earlier.

The IMF expects South Korea’s per capita GDP to exceed $40,000 in 2028, reaching $40,695. That would bring the milestone forward by a year from its previous forecast of 2029.

Taiwan, by contrast, is set to pull further ahead. Its per capita GDP is projected to rise 6.6 percent to $42,103 this year from $39,489 in 2025. By 2029, the figure is expected to reach $50,370.

Taiwan overtook South Korea in per capita GDP last year for the first time in 22 years, and the gap is expected to widen further. The difference is projected to grow from $4,691 this year to more than $10,000 by 2031.

Kim Jeong-shik, an emeritus professor of economics at Yonsei University, said a weak currency and sluggish growth have weighed on South Korea’s per capita income. Without structural reforms, including labor market improvements, the gap with Taiwan is likely to widen further, he said.


세종=김수연 기자 syeon@donga.com