South Korea warns Kim may resume Punggye-ri test

South Korean military intelligence has assessed that if North Korean leader Kim Jong Un decides, a nuclear test using the third tunnel at Punggye-ri could be carried out in a very short time. The agency also reported that even after the Lee Jae-myung administration completely dismantled South Korea’s loudspeakers aimed at the North, Pyongyang has increased its own loudspeakers targeting the South and established a continuous operational system.

The Defense Intelligence Agency made the assessment during a closed-door briefing before the National Assembly’s Intelligence Committee on Nov. 5, according to ruling Democratic Party lawmaker Park Seon-won and opposition People Power Party lawmaker Lee Seong-gwon. “We assess that North Korea has secured an intercontinental ballistic missile range of more than 13,000 kilometers, enough to reach the U.S. mainland," the agency said. "So far, they have only conducted high-angle launches, but we believe they may be trying to verify key technologies by conducting a normal-trajectory launch to determine the actual range.”

Regarding inter-Korean relations, the agency said Pyongyang is seeking to cement a hostile two-state structure by completely severing ties. In particular, while one of North Korea’s loudspeaker facilities aimed at the South was dismantled, two new ones have been installed, resulting in a net increase. The Defense Intelligence Agency said North Korea has set up about 40 loudspeakers directed at the South, all of which remain operational. Although balloon leaflet launches targeting the South were suspended after November 2024, the capability to resume such operations remains intact, according to lawmaker Lee.

The agency also noted that Chinese exports to North Korea rose after Kim attended China’s 80th Victory Day celebration in September. “Since the meeting between Kim Jong Un and Chinese President Xi Jinping, an overall trend of expanding North Korea-China cooperation has been observed," the Defense Intelligence Agency said. "Chinese exports to North Korea increased 30 percent year over year in September and jumped 54 percent from August.”


조권형 기자 buzz@donga.com