Why preparation for COVID-29 is imperative

In Netflix's science fiction show, 'The Three-Body Problem,' a civilization exists with three suns. Due to their unpredictable orbital cycles, a stable era, where the climate is moderate, alternates irregularly with a chaotic era akin to hell. During chaotic eras, planet-wide firestorms occur when all three suns may rise simultaneously. If all three suns are distant, the planet enters an ice age. The only way to survive the harshness of chaotic eras is to prepare during stable periods.

Pandemics are akin to chaotic eras. You never know when they will strike, and they can always be destructive. It's too late to prepare once one begins. And, most importantly, they always return.

It will soon mark one year since the end of the global COVID-19 pandemic. Currently, we find ourselves in a stable era. However, the looming threat of another pandemic persists, one potentially more severe than its predecessor. Pathogens might target vulnerable populations, including infants, children, and the elderly, or evolve to attack vital organs such as the brain. Considering these alarming possibilities, I am compelled to question whether we are adequately preparing for the next pandemic.

Let's start with our vaccine response strategy. In May last year, the government declared the end of the COVID-19 pandemic and announced its goal to "develop a messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) vaccine within 100 days of an outbreak." The mRNA vaccine was a "game changer" because it was quickly developed and highly effective in preventing deaths. Korea could not develop one independently and had lost the advance purchase competition, so the president had to call pharmaceutical companies and request the vaccines.

But the government and the National Assembly's response has been backward. The National mRNA Vaccine Development Project, which has spent 32.7 billion won over the past two years, will end its activities this June due to the complete budget cut for the project's second phase. During the budget review process, the government questioned why they should support the project now that COVID-19 is over. On the other hand, Japan successfully developed its own mRNA vaccine last year after investing 1 trillion won. How will we respond to the next pandemic? Beg Japan?

The next crucial step is to enhance the legislative framework supporting disease prevention and control measures like social distancing. In the previous pandemic, we prioritized societal protection over the rights of self-employed individuals and students, yet they weren't consulted in decision-making processes nor compensated for their sacrifices. In the face of a new pandemic, social distancing remains indispensable until a vaccine becomes available. Initiating cost-effective mitigation strategies is paramount, yet there's a lack of analysis regarding the impact of measures such as business hour restrictions and school closures on case reduction.

The last concern is hospital beds. During the previous pandemic, 'available hospital beds' and 'healthcare capacity' were synonymous. The government was supposed to have 1,700 negative pressure room beds ready for emergency mobilization by the end of 2022 in preparation for the next pandemic, but the plan was delayed by two years to the end of this year. This delay aimed to ensure the availability of quality beds with critical care capabilities. A slight delay is acceptable. However, we must remember that the 'emergency beds' won't be practical unless we address the current healthcare reimbursement structure, which prioritizes more funding for doctors treating mild and minor illnesses over severe and urgent cases.

From this perspective, the ongoing battle between the medical community and the government over medical school admission slots seems like a luxury. There is a mountain of challenges that need to be addressed head-on. We don't know when this stable era, which is meant to prepare for the next wave, will end. Even as we speak, viruses are lurking somewhere on the planet, waiting to spark the next pandemic, and we've forgotten the lessons of the past too quickly and too easily.